(Washington) One year to the day of the American presidential election, a poll published Sunday by the New York Times puts potential Republican candidate Donald Trump ahead of President Joe Biden in five out of six key states, with the Democrat losing ground among young people and minorities.
According to this survey New York Times/Siena College, the Republican billionaire dominates his Democratic opponent in voting intentions in Nevada (52%/41%), Georgia (49/43), Arizona (49/44), Michigan (48/43) , Pennsylvania (48/44), while Joe Biden would win in Wisconsin (47/45).
In each of these states contested by the two camps, Joe Biden won in 2020.
The survey was conducted by telephone from October 22 to November 3 among 3,662 registered voters in the six states. Its results must be considered with caution, one year before the election, the margin of error being between 4.4 and 4.8 points depending on the State.
But the trend is not in favor of Joe Biden, with 67% of respondents who consider that the country is going in the wrong direction, 59% who disapprove of the way in which he carries out his role as president (including 46% strongly), and 71% agreed with the idea that, at 80 years old, “he is too old to be an effective president”.
Joe Biden is losing ground in particular among young people, with only 41% of the 18-29 age group decided, definitively or probably, to vote for him, compared to 40% for Donald Trump.
PHOTO MANUEL BALCE CENETA, ASSOCIATED PRESS
President Joe Biden
“The demographic groups that supported Mr. Biden by overwhelming margins in 2020 are now much more contested,” notably the Hispanic and African-American communities, notes the New York Times.
The Biden camp quickly sought to put these results into perspective. “Predictions a year in advance tend to turn out a little different a year later,” said one of the Biden-Harris 2024 campaign spokespersons, Kevin Munoz. He cited a poll which showed President Barack Obama largely defeated a year before his re-election in 2012, or the mid-term elections in 2022 which promised to be catastrophic for Joe Biden, and where the Democrats limited the damage.
“We will win in 2024 by going to work head-on, not by worrying about a poll,” he added.