Polls indicate that at least half of Americans would not want next November’s election to be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. They better get used to it because barring an unforeseeable event – like a serious health problem – that’s exactly what they’re going to have.
The result of this campaign’s first meeting with voters, the Iowa caucuses, means that Donald Trump is all but guaranteed to be the Republican nominee. While no one in the Democratic camp seems interested in challenging President Joe Biden.
Normally, the series of caucuses and primaries that take place each week is a kind of obstacle course that involves several twists and turns, so that the race for the nomination of the two major parties is anything but a long smooth river.
Not this time. On the Democratic side, not only is it late for a candidate to accumulate the support and funds required to campaign, but the two times in modern history that a candidate has attempted to unseat a sitting president, it ended in failure.
In 1968, at the height of protests over the Vietnam War, Lyndon Johnson decided to step down after a poor performance in the New Hampshire primary (which he won, but narrowly against the “peace candidate”). , Eugene McCarthy).
But McCarthy was not chosen as the Democratic candidate, rather Vice-President Herbert Humphrey, who, undermined by internal divisions in his camp, was narrowly defeated by Republican Richard Nixon.
In 1980, in the midst of the American hostage crisis in Iran, Senator Edward Kennedy decided to challenge President Jimmy Carter. But he won the Democratic nomination, only to be beaten by Republican Ronald Reagan.
Moral of the story: When Democrats divide, they lose. No one wants to experience the same thing this year, so, for better or worse, it will be Joe Biden.
PHOTO LEAH MILLIS, REUTERS
Joe Biden will very possibly be the Democratic candidate in the presidential election in the United States next November.
Not only are the Iowa results a huge victory for Donald Trump, but his opponents, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, finished so far behind that he It is already clear that they will be no match for Donald Trump. In fact, for the moment, they have the effect of canceling each other out.
How can we explain such support for Donald Trump, even taking into account that Iowa is a particularly conservative state? The polls taken at the entrance to the caucuses on Monday evening are particularly revealing.
According to a summary of these surveys distributed by the Washington Post1, no less than 66% of Republican voters surveyed believed that Joe Biden was not legitimately elected in 2020, compared to 29% who think the opposite. Even though it has been more than three years now and no one has yet managed to demonstrate a single example of fraud.
Another question: if Donald Trump were convicted of a crime, he who faces four trials and 91 charges, could he still be president? 65% say yes, compared to 31% no.
PHOTO CHRISTIAN MONTERROSA, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida and candidate for the Republican nomination
In the eyes of Ron DeSantis, there is only one explanation: disinformation. ” He [Trump] is protected by a praetorian guard of conservative media, from Fox News to websites that don’t hold him accountable for anything because they’re afraid of losing ratings. I wish it didn’t exist, but it’s reality. » Note the irony of seeing candidate DeSantis criticize the media, but not Donald Trump who has propagated this disinformation for three years.
This is an explanation that we normally hear from left-wing commentators. That it now comes from the conservative governor of a state like Florida is very telling.
But this poll is above all revealing of the state of mind of Republican voters who will choose their candidate over the coming weeks. And it already seems almost impossible to stop Donald Trump.
Even his legal troubles don’t seem to slow him down. On the contrary, he demonstrated again on Tuesday, he intends to use his presence in court as an electoral platform.
For Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis, one or the other would need a victory at the next two meetings: New Hampshire next Tuesday or South Carolina on February 24 to say that there is now a real race .
By the way, in South Carolina – where Mme Haley was governor in 2011 and 2017 – Donald Trump leads in the polls with 55% of the vote, compared to 25% for Mme Haley and less than 15% for Mr. DeSantis2.
We will first have to watch New Hampshire next Tuesday, since the majority of the electorate is made up of independents – who register as such on the electoral roll – and who can vote in the Republican primary. Which could possibly lead to surprises.