Donald Trump’s first criminal indictment caused a stir two months ago, but did not disrupt or change his plans to run for president of the United States in 2024. This second, which targets him for allegedly retaining confidential documents – some of which would concern national security and American nuclear secrets – could she hit him harder and push him resolutely towards the exit door?
In this “White House archives affair”, the former Republican president faces 37 criminal counts, detailed in an indictment made public on Friday.
Basically, he is accused of having kept at his home, in his Florida residence in Mar-a-Lago, entire boxes of documents, some of which related to national defense and classified as “secret”, after his departure from the House- Blanche and for refusing to return them.
“The classified documents that Trump kept in boxes contain information on the defense capabilities of the United States and foreign countries” and “on the nuclear programs” of the United States, according to the legal document. Their potential “dissemination would have endangered the national security of the United States”.
These allegations at the basis of the indictment are “much more serious and substantial” than those underlying the first, filed in April, which accused him of having paid bribes to buy silence, including that of former pornographic actress Stormy Daniels, says historian Jason Opal, professor at McGill University and specialist in United States politics and their constitution.
It’s more of a federal indictment — unlike the first one, which came from New York state, he notes. The federal prosecutor is a “more formidable opponent,” says the professor: his office has much more resources, and his prosecution division has a reputation for only filing charges when it is sure to win.
Few likely effects on his popularity
If the crimes underlying the indictment are more serious, are the consequences for Donald Trump just as serious?
Not according to the fine observer of American politics Rafael Jacob, researcher at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in strategic and diplomatic studies.
Charged crimes and evidence against him appear ‘clearer and more overwhelming’ from what is known so far, he says: In one tape, Mr. Trump essentially boasts of having documents secrets, according to US media reports. A prison sentence would also be the logical consequence of a conviction.
“But from a political point of view, it is not more likely to harm him” than the first indictment, he says. The populist ex-president could even more easily use this second set of accusations to his advantage.
Because the man presents himself as a victim and is able to convince a large part of the population, as he has done until now, that he is treated differently from other elected officials, who have also had documents in their possession illegally, but without being charged. “It is a very easy argument for him to present: see how I am persecuted! argues Mr. Jacob.
The former president has also posed since Thursday as the target of another “witch hunt”.
Media attention
Major figures in the Republican Party have gone public in defense of Trump, including Ron DeSantis, his opponent in the race for the White House, who lamented Friday that the justice system is being used as a weapon.
In a “normal world”, such an indictment, “it should sink it”, continues Mr. Jacob. But in the current media dynamic, “the more layers you add, the more likely it is to help him than to hurt him.” This also allows him to remain the candidate everyone is talking about in the media and to promote his candidacy. It remains well placed in the voting intentions, he underlines.
The nature of the allegations against the ex-president, which falls under military secrecy, could demonstrate “un-American” behavior, an unforgivable sin in the country of Uncle Sam. But no one will believe that Donald Trump is a spy and no one would succeed to believe that another is more patriotic than him, analyzes the researcher.
The recent indictment also allowed him to ask for donations – barely 12 hours after the news, notes Mr. Jacob – which is already helping him finance his electoral campaign.
Professor Opal distinguishes fiercely loyal Trump supporters — about a third of Americans — from other voters. No matter the type of indictment, the former will not change their minds about him. But they won’t be enough to win him the election, and that’s where the latest impeachment may hurt him badly, he says: so few people care about a payment to Stormy Daniels , they might resent actions that may have threatened the security of the United States.
Jason Opal recalls that the ex-president is not at the end of his sentences: a third indictment hangs at the end of his nose, namely that relating to his alleged attempt to appropriate the Democratic vote of Georgia for illegally stay in power in 2020.