The Wagner Group rebellion took the Russians and the international community by surprise. The questions have been swirling ever since. How could mutineers progress so easily towards Moscow? Is President Putin weaker than we are led to believe in the West? While the analyzes and interpretations fuse, we hear too little of the point of view of the Russians. The duty spoke in writing to two political science professors who teach at universities in Russia to get their perspective on the situation.
For a Moscow political scientist who requested anonymity because of the risk to his safety, the reaction of Vladimir Putin – who decided to drop all charges against the mutineers and who allowed the leader of the paramilitary group Wagner, Yevgeni Prigozhin, to leave Russia safely — should be seen as a manifestation of the weakening of his power. “It’s clear and obvious to me,” he says.
According to this professor, Russia’s failures in the war it has unleashed in Ukraine, combined with the “accumulated fatigue” against this regime, whose decisions are based essentially on improvisation and opportunism, could spell the end of Putin’s presidency. “He is much weaker now [qu’avant la guerre en Ukraine], he mentions. I guess this invasion is the beginning of the end of the current political regime. »
Last weekend’s mutiny was a successful bet for Prigojine, he believes. “No one was imprisoned, no one was prosecuted, only a few military helicopters were shot down and a few soldiers killed,” he wrote, adding that these losses are obviously deplorable.
The Prigozhin rebellion shows that new politico-military forces are gradually maturing in Russia and will begin to claim power. And it is far from certain that a peaceful settlement of the conflict with the West will feature in his plans.
“You imagine: in the morning, the “national leader” [le président russe, Vladimir Poutine] spoke of betrayal, mutiny and inevitable punishment for all those who participated in criminal actions; and after a few hours…nothing. No punishment. No inevitable revenge”, he continues, to illustrate this weakening of Putin.
According to him, the impression that Russia is mired in the war in Ukraine is now widespread in the country. Senior figures in the Kremlin would wait for the West to reach out to them to find a compromise to end the armed conflict, he believes. “This was one of the main expectations of Russian decision-makers from the first days of the war. That the West asks for negotiations, a compromise, a “New Deal”, etc. »
New strengths
This idea of ”compromise” is also taken up by Ilya Morozov, professor at the Volgograd campus of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, who nevertheless presents a point of view much closer to power than the professor from Moscow.
“The paradox of the situation is that with Putin and his elite, the West has a chance to find a compromise if it wants to,” he says, presenting the Putin government as moderate. “But the Prigozhin rebellion shows that new politico-military forces are gradually maturing in Russia and will begin to claim power. And it is far from certain that a peaceful settlement of the conflict with the West will feature in his plans. »
To understand Russia’s actions on the international scene, the country’s history and geography must be taken into consideration, the professor explains in defense. “Americans and Canadians do not feel a great geopolitical danger for their homeland”, he emphasizes, specifying that the ocean protects us “from the historical centers at the origin of the world wars”. This is not the case of Russia, he underlines, recalling that Batu Khan, Napoleon and Hitler have in turn invaded “the very heart of Russia, and thus created a threat to its existence”.
Russia’s territorial expansion must incidentally be seen as a guarantee to ensure its security, believes the political scientist, avoiding the fact that this is a violation of international law.
The mistake of Western leaders is that “they perceive Russia’s desire for territorial expansion as a sign of aggression, as Moscow’s imperial ambitions,” he writes. “But it’s quite the opposite: Moscow fears for its security and tries to push the potential aggressor farthest from itself,” says Professor Morozov, alluding to the enlargement of NATO – by the way. brandished by President Vladimir Putin to justify the illegal invasion of Ukraine. An argument bitterly refuted by kyiv and its allies, including Canada.
The events of last weekend have not finished giving rise to analyzes and interpretations. However, their consequences are still difficult to predict. For Ilya Morozov, “the hope of Ukraine and the West to see peaceful politicians come to power in Russia with the fall of Vladimir Putin’s regime is a dangerous illusion”, he warns, rather evoking “a shift towards a right-wing militarism”.
A fear that gives the good role to the Putin government, but which is also mentioned by Western observers