Kazakhstan is shaken by a dispute that erupted Sunday in the west of the country after a rise in gas prices. At the request of the president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Moscow deployed 3,000 troops on Thursday January 6 as part of a collective security alliance treaty.
The latter said on Friday January 7 that the order was largely “restored” in the country, adding that operations to restore public order would continue “until the total destruction of the militants”.
[THREAD] Demonstrations after the rise in gas prices, resignation of the government, state of emergency, dispatch of Russian forces …
We explain to you in 8 questions the situation in Kazakhstan where an initial assessment shows several dead and a thousand injured. pic.twitter.com/D399ch0I7r
– franceinfo (@franceinfo) January 6, 2022
Repressed in blood, the protest movement quickly went beyond the question of the price of gas: the former head of state, Nursultan Nazarbayev, 81 years old, and who continues to exercise considerable influence, now focuses on his person. resentment of the population and the anger of the demonstrators. The violence of repression questions the power in place.
“Nursultan Nazarbayev was the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan from its independence in 1991 until March 19, 2019, explains Michael Livingstone, researcher at theFrench Institute of International Relations. He handed over the reins of power to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev for a sham departure because he was kept at the head of the presidential party, as well as life president of the National Security Council.
“Tokayev found himself president of the Republic of Kazakhstan with, above him, the leader of the Kazakh nation, who was no longer president, but … still somewhat president.”
Michael livingstoneto franceinfo
To this two-headed power is added the privileged relationship between ex-President Nazarbayev and Vladimir Poutine. The two men have known each other for twenty years and this proximity to the Russian leader reinforces the stature of the former head of state of Kazakhstan.
Should we see, then, the shadow cast by the Russian neighbor? The interests in this Central Asian country, former member of the Soviet bloc, rich in gas, oil and uranium, are immense. Also, many theories on the destabilization of Kazakhstan have flourished in recent days.
Pascal Lorot, specialist in Central Asia and president of the Institut géopolitique Choiseul, defeats them: “There are two options in terms of destabilization, he indicates. The first is to say that it is the work of the Russians. But in reality, they have no interest in it. They will certainly try to take advantage of it, as each country seeks to take advantage of a weakness in a neighbor. But it doesn’t come from there. “
“The other option, continues Pascal Lorot, could be found on the side of the Americans: we could say that the Americans are present in Kazakhstan, they finance NGOs and civil society, which shoots red balls anyway on the power in place. And we could say that the Americans have an interest in seeing Kazakhstan destabilized, fixing the Russians on this geography and therefore, ultimately, easing the pressure on Ukraine. “
“I don’t believe in this option either, indicates the specialist in Central Asia. It can come right back to the Americans, who do not want it, even as they start discussions with the Russians on Ukraine. I think this is really a movement caused by the decision to increase gas prices and it escalates. The fact that the riots started in the west of the country, in the oil regions, where there is a tradition of roughness at the societal level, is not in this respect a surprise … “
Crisis in Kazakhstan: who is President Kasym-Jomart Tokayev?
to listen