As 2024 approaches, the victories of the Ukrainian army in the Black Sea should not be underestimated, say two experts. Again this week, the Ukrainians damaged a large landing ship in Crimea, in addition to having resumed exporting grain by sea in the fall.
What there is to know
On Tuesday, the Ukrainian army damaged the large Russian landing ship Novocherkassk.
An expert believes that Kyiv’s successes in the Black Sea are “not appreciated at their true value in the West”.
On the ground, Ukraine is struggling to make gains in the counter-offensive that it began several months ago.
All eyes should be on the US Congress, which will have to determine whether or not it continues its aid to Ukraine.
“The successes of the Ukrainians in the Black Sea are not fully appreciated in the West,” said Maria Popova, associate professor at the Jean-Monnet chair at McGill University, in an interview.
Moscow confirmed on Tuesday that the large landing ship Novocherkassk had suffered “damage”. The Ukrainian army assured that it had “destroyed” this ship, which was carrying Iranian-built Shahed drones, according to it.
The ship was in the port of Feodosia, on the southeastern coast of Crimea, about 190 kilometers from Sevastopol, the main home port of the Russian fleet on the peninsula.
SATELLITE PHOTO OF MAXAR, PROVIDED BY THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
The Russian landing ship Novocherkassk was damaged by Ukrainian forces while in the Crimean port of Feodosia.
A “significant” victory, according to Dominique Arel, holder of the Chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa. Indeed, it shows that Ukraine is able to strike this port, which is much further away than that of Sevastopol. As a result, it could force the Russian army to withdraw even further from the region, he explains.
It reduces Russia’s ability to strike southern Ukraine. And in the case of Sevastopol, it complicates the supply lines.
Dominique Arel, holder of the Chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa
A symbolic victory
Beyond the strategic issues, the two experts believe that the Ukrainian victories in the Black Sea are emblematic. “Everything revolves around Crimea,” recalls Mr. Arel.
Crimea, a Ukrainian territory annexed by Russia in 2014, is essential to the Russian invasion. According to Mme Popova, the gains in the Black Sea bring Ukraine closer to the possibility of recovering this territory.
It signals that Crimea is not so special, not so important that Russia would never let it go.
Maria Popova, associate professor at the Jean-Monnet chair at McGill University
Not to mention that Ukraine’s successes against the Russian fleet since this fall have allowed the resumption of the export of Ukrainian grain by sea. And this, even though Moscow ended the agreement on Ukrainian grains last summer.
Since August, Ukraine has been able to export 10 million tonnes of products via the Black Sea corridor, by 302 ships and to 24 countries, Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said on Tuesday.
“Ukraine managed to unilaterally break the blockade that Russia had imposed on it. And that is a great achievement,” notes Mme Popova.
The frozen front line
However, despite intense clashes, the news is not as good on the land front line which pits the Ukrainian army against waves of Russian soldiers.
In mid-November, the Ukrainians managed to cross the Dnieper, in the south of the country, and establish themselves on the other side of this river which had marked the front line for a year.
PHOTO FINBARR O’REILLY, THE NEW YORK TIMES
Ukrainian soldiers fire their howitzers towards Russian positions on the front line in the Donetsk region.
But to be able to penetrate deep into occupied territory, the Ukrainian army will have to succeed in transferring heavy equipment into this sandy and marshy area.
“The counter-offensive in the South is essentially blocked,” analyzes Dominique Arel. Ukraine is unable to make gains and Russia is in a defensive position. »
As for the front line in the east, Russia is on the contrary in counter-offensive mode. “It’s not making much progress and the Russians are suffering almost unreal losses, but they are managing to gain a little ground,” explains Mr. Arel.
PHOTO FINBARR O’REILLY, THE NEW YORK TIMES
Ukrainian soldiers in a bunker near the front line
At the start of the week, Russia claimed the capture of Marïnka, a suburb of Donetsk, in the east of the country. The next day, the Ukrainians recognized that its troops had withdrawn to the outskirts of the city.
Russia has an advantage over Ukraine in artillery and munitions, resulting in Ukraine being essentially drowned in artillery and human waves [de soldats].
Dominique Arel, holder of the Chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa
In the circumstances, the capture of Marïnka, a small town essentially destroyed, remains a “modest” victory for Russia, according to him.
“The Ukrainians are fighting with one arm tied behind their back: without air support and without long-range weapons,” also recalls Maria Popova.
With the support budget for Ukraine still blocked by the American Congress, and the start of an election year in our southern neighbors, it is mainly in this direction that we will have to look to predict the outcome of the war in Ukraine , conclude the two specialists.
With Agence France-Presse