Ukraine, two years later: Putin can still win the war

Two years ago, almost everyone believed that the Russian army would quickly conquer all of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin himself planned an operation lasting a few days. But the Ukrainian army pushed the Russian army back from a large part of its territory. For almost a year, the two countries have been facing each other on the battlefields, without one being able to significantly prevail over the other. This war may still reveal surprises.

The war in Ukraine is taking place on three fronts: that of military combat itself, that of the economy and that of ideology. Russia has yet to achieve complete victory on any front. However, its progress is proportional to the weakening of the United States’ commitment. Russia can still win the war. But in the long term, she will be expelled from Ukraine.

The military front

The Russian army has four major assets:

• Its population is three times larger than that of Ukraine.
• China and North Korea supply it with military equipment.
• Its vast territory is for the moment largely safe from Ukrainian attacks.
• It has atomic weapons, although its use strictly within the framework of the war in Ukraine would probably cause it to lose the support of China.

The Russian army has several weaknesses. It is even more corrupt than the Ukrainian army. She has difficulty adapting to modern methods of combat. His morale is quite low.

Ukrainian soldiers have a deep conviction to defend themselves against an invader. Ukrainian military equipment is generally more efficient than that of Russia. Ukrainians benefit from the advice of NATO armies.

Unfortunately, the Ukrainian army faces significant difficulties in supplying ammunition and equipment, as demonstrated by its withdrawal from Adiivka in recent days.

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The hesitation of the United States to provide new financial aid is directly responsible for this.

The Ukrainian army is having difficulty recruiting new soldiers. These difficulties will increase if the United States abandons Ukraine. Such abandonment would lower the morale of the Ukrainian troops.

The economic front

Because of its hydrocarbon wealth and thanks to the support of China and a few other countries, Russia managed to overcome most of the economic sanctions that the United States and its allies had decided to impose on it.

Clearly, the Russian economy has not collapsed and is not showing signs of imminent collapse. However, the reconversion of part of its industry into the military sector bodes dark days for the Russian population. This is where trade with China is particularly important.

Ukraine does not have natural resources like Russia. However, it can count on economic aid from the United States and its allies. Faced with their economic potential, Russia is no match.

However, Ukraine competes with several European countries on the grain market. Despite increasingly significant aid from European countries, they would have difficulty compensating for a possible withdrawal of American aid.

The ideological front

The ideological front is where Russia is strongest. It is also the front where the Americans and their allies have the most difficulty fighting.

As Liz Cheney pointed out recently, Russia has succeeded in creating a pro-Putin wing within the Republican Party. Likewise, part of public opinion in several countries allied to Ukraine is falling back into old reflexes of support for Moscow which recall the Soviet era.

Russian propaganda is very present in Western countries due to their openness. Conversely, arguments against its war in Ukraine are censored in Russian media.

Russia also spreads strong propaganda against other Western countries throughout the world. She is suspected of putting pressure in several countries to ban access to Western media.

Few certainties

One thing seems fairly certain: without help from the United States, Ukraine will not be able to hold its own against the Russian army.

However, in the long term, Russia will not be able to maintain itself in Ukraine either. It will be driven out as it has already been driven out of Afghanistan, despite its Russification policies.

Another thing also seems quite certain: if Ukraine falls, Putin or the Russian nationalists will continue their policies of conquest. They will continue to look down on other Westerners. They will use the resources of the conquered territories to strengthen the Russian army.

The world they are preparing is a world of wars in all European territories or territories of European influence.

Three quotes that say it all

“Support is important. Solidarity is important. Only together, in unity, we can win this war” – Volodimir Zelensky

“The extent to which we now have a Putin wing of the Republican Party must be taken seriously […] This Putin wing must not take over the West Wing of the White House” – Liz Cheney

“Russia’s goals remain unchanged in Ukraine and there will be no peace until they are achieved” – Vladimir Putin

Losses of Russia and Ukraine

^{*Ukrainian government figures (rounded) **Russian government figures (rounded)}

The war in Ukraine in 8 notable stages

1) 2014: preparation for war with the annexation of Crimea and support for Russian separatists in Donbass.

2) February 24 to 25, 2022: Russian attacks on 4 fronts; part of the suburbs of Kyiv is taken.

3) April 2, 2022: the Ukrainian army forces Russia’s withdrawal from northern Ukraine.

4) April to August 2022: the front lines remain almost the same.

5) September to November 2022: major Ukrainian counter-offensive, with little progress.

6) Mid-November 2022 to June 2023: second stagnation of the front lines.

7) September to November 2023: new major Ukrainian offensive, with little progress.

8) December 2023 to now: new stalemate and preparation for a major Russian offensive.