After nearly five months of fighting, the war for territorial control continues in Ukraine. Last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky estimated that Russia now controlled 20% of the territory, while it controlled only 7% before the invasion launched at the end of February.
At 141e day of the conflict, the Russian troops continue the offensive in order to achieve territorial gains. Report of the inventory of fixtures in cards.
Donbass invasion
The main battles are taking place in eastern Ukraine and the Donbass, an industrial and mining basin that Moscow has promised to completely conquer. The Russian army has gained a lot of ground there since the invasion: Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu declared in early July that Russian forces held control of the Luhansk region. The city of Lysychansk, the last great bastion of Ukrainian resistance in this region, having fallen into Russian hands.
Russia is now aiming for the total conquest of the Donetsk region, where it occupies about half of the territory, according to Ukrainian officials and military analysts.
Russian military control before and after the start of the invasion in Ukraine
Areas controlled since 2014 by Moscow-backed separatists are delimited by the dotted lines. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project. Data from July 13.
What will the Russian president seek to do if his troops succeed in controlling all of the east of the country? It’s a safe bet that he will want to annex the Donbass, according to Charles-Philippe David, founder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in strategic and diplomatic studies.
“The fact that we have established a diplomatic representation of Donetsk in Moscow, in addition to the delivery of Russian passports to the population of eastern Ukraine, these are fairly certain indications. So that amounts to amputating Ukraine by about 20% [de son] territory,” he says.
However, it is difficult to predict whether the invasion would stop at this potential annexation. “Does Putin want to go further? Does he intend to try to take kyiv again? Nothing is impossible, recalls the researcher.
Change of target
For several weeks, Russian strikes on western and central Ukraine, far from the eastern and southern front lines, have been relatively rare. But the war is now spreading and raging around cities like Mykolaiv (south), whose port was hit by a “massive missile strike” early Thursday morning, for a second consecutive day.
Despite the airstrikes that occur there, the west of the country remains in the hands of Ukraine. “With Russia’s colossal defeat in its bid to bring down the Ukrainian government and take over the capital, I think [Vladimir Poutine] understood that it was far too big a chunk to swallow and that the Ukrainian resistance, which he had enormously underestimated, stood firm,” explains Charles-Philippe David.
” [Le président russe] lost countless generals. A respectable and respected armed force does not lose a dozen of its generals on the battlefield. He is not doing too badly in the east because he has turned around,” he adds.
Russian troops advancing
While Russian troops have failed to make any concrete gains in the west of the country, they are making slow progress in key locations in the east. On Monday, kyiv warned that the Russian army was preparing to launch a new offensive on key cities in the Donbass, while attacks multiplied against the Russian authorities put in place in the occupied areas.
The city of Kramatorsk, the administrative center of Donbass still under Ukrainian control, and the neighboring town of Sloviansk are considered to be the next targets of the Russian military in their plan to completely conquer Donbass, more than four months after the start of the invasion from Ukraine.
Advance of Russian troops
Territory under Russian military control is in red and areas where Russian troops are advancing are in orange.
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project. Data from July 13.
For the founder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, the blow was to be expected from the start of the invasion. “I am not surprised that [le président russe] please take the Donbass and let it progress. There are advances and setbacks there too. This will to take the Donbass will probably be a little more successful, and it will undoubtedly lead to more success than its initial objective. [de conquérir tout le territoire] “, he says.
The Ukrainian territory occupied by Russian military forces would represent the equivalent of more than a third (35%) of Germany or more than half (52%) of the United Kingdom, according to the British newspaper New Statesman.
Ukrainian offensives
After losing control of many cities to the Russians, Ukrainian troops have also been able to regain control since the start of the conflict – and are still fighting to regain the conquered territories.
Even as Russian forces seized Lysychansk, the last town in the eastern Luhansk region, President Zelensky vowed that Ukraine would retake the town.
Ukraine has also launched a counter-offensive for several weeks to retake Kherson, the only regional capital captured by Moscow since February 24.
“For Ukrainians, now, [l’objectif] will be to try to regain portions of the territory in the east of the country that they have lost. If Russia seeks to annex the Donbass, nothing prevents Ukraine from carrying out a counter-offensive to liberate the south and regain access to the Black Sea”, says Mr. David.
Ukrainian counter-offensives
Areas under Russian military control (red), areas where Russian troops are advancing (orange) and areas of Ukrainian counter-offensives (blue).
Source: Institute for the Study of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project. Data from July 13.
All in all, this war is far from over, according to Mr. David, who recalls that any occupation or annexation will be contested by Ukraine. “There may be a ‘victory’ for Putin, but we know that it will not be a clear, clean and final victory. He can say that he has won eastern Ukraine, but we know that the Ukrainians are not going to capitulate, they are not going to accept this Russian victory, ”he concludes.
There is no overall assessment of the civilian victims of the conflict. According to its most recent data, the UN has recorded more than 5,000 confirmed deaths, including more than 300 children, but the Organization recognizes that the true number is undoubtedly much higher.
With Agence France-Presse