Reform UK, the Europhobic and anti-immigration party shaking up the United Kingdom

The party, formed on the ashes of the Brexit party, is gaining points in the polls a few months before the legislative elections in the United Kingdom. A progression which is to the detriment of the conservative party.

The most recent polls give it 15% of voting intentions for the next legislative elections, organized at the end of 2024 in the United Kingdom. In opinion polls, the Reform UK party is slowly eating away at the Conservative Party (credited at 19% in the same poll). This movement with radical ideas, born on the ruins of the Brexit party, takes up the promises not kept by the government in recent years. All in a context of declining purchasing power and with one obsession: zero immigration, in particular the boats which cross the Channel from the French coast.

“It is, without the slightest doubt, a threat to national security, insisted Richard Tice, the leader of Reform UK, in his Sunday op-ed on the GB News TV channel. What is needed is courage and leadership. Unfortunately, there is none in government, nor in the public service. You can stop the boats. You collect passengers safely, as is already done, but instead of taking them to Dover, you take them back to Dunkirk. We have the right to do it, I have read the treaties. It’s the only way to stop the boats.”

Pro-Brexit and right-wing voters

Reform UK defends Brexit, even though the majority of people now think it was a mistake. The movement claims that it has been poorly applied, takes up its initial promises and decrees that it will do better. An even more radical speech which appeals to some of the voters who voted for the conservative party during the last general elections, in 2019.

“In my family, in general, we always vote Conservative. But this time, enough is enough. They do nothing. They are too soft. Reform UK interests me, and not only me. I can see that their ideas are circulating throughout the country”, testifies Josh, a mason in his thirties from Northampton. Ideas which are also defended by conservative elected officials themselves. The hardest fringe, the one who wants a strong leader and who finds Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hesitant.

In addition to a loss of momentum in the polls, the Conservative Party is seeing some of its members move to the other side. The Manchester mayoral candidate has announced he is joining Reform UK. Before him, it was the former vice-president of the Conservative Party, MP Lee Anderson, who defected. “The Conservatives have legitimized and normalized the rhetoric and policies proposed by Reform UK,” estimates Tim Bale, professor of political science at Queen Mary University of London, for whom the current majority, over the years, has prepared the ground for a more radical movement.

“What was previously considered off limits or on the fringes now seems completely normal. The conservatives have actually contributed to making their situation even worse,” believes the professor.

Reform UK, however, rejects the label “extreme right.” Under threat of a complaint, the BBC (British public media) even apologized for having described him in this way. Tim Bale speaks of a populist radical right, which constantly pits the people against the elites, like an American model carried by Donald Trump. “Conservatives have always looked across the Atlantic for inspiration. They never believed he could learn anything from their counterparts in Europe. Obviously, for some, Trump appears to be a model.” Judge Tim Bale.

Despite recent polls, Reform UK is not expected to govern the country next autumn. In a single-round election, it is even likely that he will not win a single MP seat during the elections. On the other hand, it could cause the conservatives to fall even more heavily. Meanwhile, Labor is leading the polls by more than 20 points. The majority seems promised to them after more than 13 years in opposition.