The deficit is growing
The CAQ blue ink once again takes on a dark red color this year. In 2024-2025, the Minister of Finance, Eric Girard, forecasts a deficit of 11 billion, after payments to the Generations Fund and including a provision for contingencies, which could be more imposing than at the worst of the pandemic. “This deficit is dependent on a difficult economic and climatic context, but it is also necessary to improve services to the population now. It is necessary and it is manageable,” he says. In this context, the return to balanced budget, which was planned for 2027-2028, has now been postponed to 2029-2030. A new plan to achieve this must be announced in the next budget.
39%
The weight of Quebec’s net debt as of March 31, 2024. The government wants to reduce it to 30% of GDP by 2037-2038 by restoring, among other things, a balanced budget.
New trendy word: “optimization”
Don’t look for the terms “austerity” or “budgetary rigor” in this new budget from Eric Girard, you won’t find them. To restore budgetary balance, the Minister of Finance is undertaking a major “optimization” of state spending this spring. This project should generate additional revenues of 2.9 billion within five years, he predicts. Tax aid for businesses will be revised to reduce their cost by 1 billion over five years. The main government companies (Hydro-Québec, Loto-Québec, the SAQ, the SQDC and Investissement Québec) “will also have to carry out equivalent optimization and efficiency efforts”.
96.5 million
Investment over five years to strengthen tax control and the fight against economic crimes. Quebec anticipates that these measures will make it possible to manage additional revenues of 660 million over the same period.
The economy is stalling
“The economy stood still in 2023,” recalls Eric Girard, but the unemployment rate nevertheless remained “well below that of Canada as a whole and the lowest among the provinces.” In this context, the Minister of Finance predicts that real GDP growth will be “modest” in 2024, reaching 0.6%, but that it should accelerate next year, in 2025, to 1.6%. . “Quebec’s economy is well positioned to begin a sustainable recovery in the second half of 2024, in synchronization with the gradual drop in interest rates and the reduction in inflation,” analyzes the government’s chief financier. .
443 million
Investment over five years to stimulate economic growth and establish industrial laboratories, support the aerospace, aluminum and new technologies sectors, among others.
Waiting for Santé Québec
At the same time as it deploys the new Santé Québec agency, the government is investing nearly 3.7 billion over five years, and more precisely 730 million this year, to support “a humane and effective organization of health care and social services “. Concretely, Minister Eric Girard allocates 1.8 billion for access to care and fluidity in hospitals, 1.1 billion to maintain the quality of care and services for seniors and 738 million for social services. These amounts are all broken down over five years. In total, growth in program spending for Health and Social Services reaches 5.3% in 2024-2025.
300 million
Additional revenue, over five years, that the government believes it will obtain by making two increases in the tax on tobacco products of $2 each per carton of 200 cigarettes, effective March 13, 2024 and January 6, 2025.
Student success
After a hot fall marked by a historic education strike and the renewal of collective agreements, Quebec plans a “considerable increase in spending” of 818.7 million over five years (293 million in 2024-2025) to add investments in support to student success (544.5 million over five years), in the retention and attraction of school staff (113.6 million over five years), to support several organizations such as the Breakfast Club (60.6 million over five years) and to tackle the recurring problem of dilapidated schools (100 million by 2028-2029). In total, growth in education program spending reaches 7.6% in 2024-2025.
420 million
Funding over five years intended for universities and the higher education sector to promote student success and retention, support training deemed “priority”, and increase and maintain student accommodation.
The end of “Rolez vert” in 2027
Electric vehicle consumers can circle 1er January 2027 on the calendar, the date on which the government will put an end to “Roulez vert”. Under this program, which serves as an incentive to electrify the vehicle fleet, Quebec pays up to $7,000 to a buyer of a fully electric vehicle until December 31. This amount will decrease over the next few years and will end on 1er January 2027. In terms of the fight against climate change, Minister Eric Girard plans a sum of 128 million dollars over five years (20.8 million in 2024-2025), including 29 million to increase the capacity of SOPFEU to combat forest fires.
102 million
Sums over five years intended to improve the safety of citizens in the context of climate change, including an envelope of 61 million to “act in the face of the increase in major disasters”.
Distribution of portfolio expenses (in millions of dollars)
- Health and Social Services: 61,909
- Education and Higher Education: 33,424
- Debt service: 9,762
- Family: 8,498
- Transport and Sustainable Mobility: 6,603
- Employment and Social Solidarity: 5,615
- Treasury Board and Government Administration: 5,275
- Municipal Affairs and Housing: 5,064
- Others: 21,427
Total: 157,577