The war in Ukraine is now part of a long-term perspective, measured by the yardstick of the present time, while the territorial and human dismemberment of the country continues inexorably, region by region, city by city, without foreseeable and negotiated truce on the horizon.
At the beginning of the month, we highlighted the 100e day of a conflict with characteristics that are both very old and singularly new; at rates much slower than expected, but which remain, despite everything, just as terrible and with always surprising ramifications. A first provisional assessment is necessary, because, as underlined on November 10, 1942, without excessive triumphalism, the Prime Minister Winston Churchill, after the victory of El Alamein, in North Africa: “It is not the end. It’s not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning”.
In the case of the war in Ukraine, it is therefore, in our opinion, the end of the beginning; for the world, it is even, potentially, the beginning of large-scale hunger.
At first glance, however, very little seems to have changed: the Russians are attacking en masse, with force and brutality; the Ukrainians are resisting heroically, struggling step by step to regain lost ground. But how much longer will this danse macabre, this deadly strategic game of cat and mouse, last?
Indeed, the progress of the Russian army is nevertheless very real: it now effectively controls 20% of Ukrainian territory, as the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky himself has acknowledged. In comparison, this figure was 7% at the start of hostilities. The Ukrainian army also loses 60 to 100 soldiers per day, killed in action, and some 500 are wounded.
Meanwhile, fighting continues in eastern Ukraine, particularly in Severodonetsk, a strategic mining center in Donbass.
According The Moscow Times June 14, Russian forces have stepped up efforts since Tuesday to isolate Ukrainian troops in the key industrial city, as the Ukrainians insist they are still resisting and still in control. But for how long ?
Moscow has been besieging the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk for weeks, these being the last areas of the LuHansk region still under Ukrainian control.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the human cost of the battle for the east “simply terrifying”, urging Western allies to speed up arms deliveries to bolster Ukraine’s ability to reclaim territory. Will he be heard? Can the expected weapons be delivered on time? Will they be enough to change the fortunes of Ukrainians at war?
In sum, after major initial miscalculations, Russia and its army seem not only to be better concentrating their efforts of undermining and destruction, but also to settle, apparently, in the territories recently conquered. In the medium term, will the Russian successes, undeniable but relative, thus undermine the resolution and the formidable will to resist of the Ukrainians?
Because, even if Ukraine has effectively demonstrated to the world that it can defend itself and ultimately, perhaps, win its battle for freedom, this will undoubtedly be done at the cost of great sacrifices that will be cruelly paid for in bloodshed, in lives lost or injured for eternity.
Let us not forget that so far, as England’s Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has said, tens of thousands of people have died and more than 6.6 million refugees have fled the country since the beginning of the special military operation ordered by President Vladimir Putin. While 8 million Ukrainians have been internally displaced, nearly 13 million are stranded in conflict zones and nearly 16 million are in need of humanitarian assistance.
At the same time, the theft of grain by Russia and the destruction and blockade of key ports contribute to significantly exacerbate one of the most serious food crises in recent history, now threatening many countries and putting the world’s most vulnerable at risk.
Russian President Putin also discussed the issue on June 4 with his Senegalese counterpart, Macky Sall, who was then in his position as head of the African Union, ensuring the transport of some 22 tonnes of grain and other cereals. It is in this context that kyiv accuses Moscow of stealing Ukrainian wheat and trading it for its sole benefit; the grain must leave in less than twenty days, according to the mayor of Odessa, otherwise it risks rotting.
As such, Pope Francis has spoken clearly on this essential humanitarian issue, “while millions of people depend on it, especially in poor countries”. 1er June, during a hearing, he indeed shared his “serious concern”: “Please do not use cereals, a staple food, as a weapon of war”, he said. he said, adding that everything must be done to solve the problem and guarantee people’s basic right to basic foodstuffs.
On a higher level, with Ukraine in mind, he took up the same idea on June 5, Pentecost Sunday, after the weekly prayer to the Virgin Mary, Queen of Heaven, giving it a more diplomatic orientation, however, in an appeal with almost apocalyptic connotations: “I renew my appeal to the leaders of nations: please do not lead humanity to ruin! Do not lead humanity to ruin. Let real negotiations take place, real negotiations for a ceasefire and a lasting solution. »