On 9th and 10th February Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to Brussels to meet the 27 Heads of State sitting on the Council of Europe. If this meeting was able to project the image of great cohesion within the European Union, the reality betrays its limits.
Punishments ? Yes, but…
These limits are first observed in the effectiveness of the sanctions imposed against Russia. While those imposed by European countries are unprecedented, their impact is only partial: the International Monetary Fund forecasts Russian GDP growth of 0.3% in 2023.
It is to the export of its energy resources that Russia owes the relative good performance of its economy. This is the sector on which the countries of Europe are the most divided, due to their strong energy dependence on Russia. We will remember in particular the slowness with which these countries reached an agreement on the prohibition of imports of Russian oil. This ban has been in effect since December for crude oil, but only since February 5 for refined oil. However, the effects of this ban on Russia will take time to materialize.
With regard to gas, the European Union has only partially reduced its imports of Russian gas. His purchases could only contribute to the economy of Russia.
The difficulty of finding unity on this front was evident during Zelensky’s recent visit to Brussels. The Ukrainian president had called for tougher sanctions against the energy sector, particularly with regard to Rosatom, the main Russian nuclear company. The European Union could not agree, since Rosatom provides almost half of the electricity to certain European countries, including Hungary and Finland.
Military support? Yes, but…
In terms of military support for Ukraine, the European commitment is also unprecedented. The agreement reached between several European countries to send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine was historic, and the commitment seemed total, if we are to believe the vote of the European Parliament on February 16: the deputies adopted a resolution asking the European Commission to provide “military aid to Ukraine for as long as necessary”, by “seriously considering the dispatch of additional fighter planes, helicopters, missile systems and ammunition”.
However, this consensus is far from certain. European Parliament resolutions are non-binding and the final decision rests with national governments.
National positions diverge particularly on the subject of fighter planes. While French President Emmanuel Macron said he was open to the possibility, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rejected it, saying he feared an escalation of the war, but also German public opinion, which was already not not mostly agree with the delivery of tanks.
Collective or individual decisions?
Taking into account this dispute between Paris and Berlin over fighter jets, it should be remembered that Zelensky’s visit to Brussels was preceded by a three-way meeting in the French capital with Macron and Scholz.
This meeting has a symbolic and political value: Germany and France, respectively the first and second economies of the European Union, have long held a major influence and decision-making power within the Union. Meeting these two leaders before the 25 other European Heads of State in Brussels therefore underlined their primacy as founding countries of Europe.
The European Union came out of it with an impression of disunity. The President of the Italian Council of Ministers, Giorgia Meloni, has also deemed this three-way meeting inappropriate for this reason. The perception of a two-speed Europe has emerged, with a decision-making center in Paris and Berlin, and the other countries relegated to second-tier roles.
After a year of war in Ukraine, European unity is certainly remarkable, but suffers from several shortcomings. Economic, political, historical and institutional differences make it difficult to reach consensus on delicate subjects. And in the new phase of the war that is beginning, marked by an increased military commitment, this is not a marginal problem. Especially when you consider that the security issues of certain countries of the European Union have not been resolved. One thinks in particular of the difficulties in Sweden’s process of joining NATO, blocked by Turkey’s opposition.