(New York) Oil prices fell on Tuesday, in a market concerned about the high level of Russian exports and Chinese demand which is marking time, with the prospect of a status quo from the OPEC + alliance on Sunday.
The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in July ended down 4.58%, 73.54 to dollars.
The barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of the same maturity lost 4.41%, to 69.46 dollars.
“The upward scenario on which the market was based was that of a rebound in Chinese demand and a plummeting Russian supply,” recalls Eli Rubin, of EBW Analytics Group. “But on one side or the other, he has lead in the wing. »
Chinese industrial production in particular showed a much slower than expected acceleration in April, as did retail sales or the granting of credit.
“Data expected on Wednesday should confirm the perception that the rebound has stalled and the Chinese economy will need government stimulus,” said Edward Moya of Oanda in a note.
The PMI activity indices for the month of May from the National Bureau of Statistics (BNS) will thus provide more information on the state of the Chinese economy.
As for Russian exports, they are currently well above their level at the beginning of February, when the authorities pledged to reduce their crude production by 500,000 barrels per day.
According to the Bloomberg agency, Russia even plans to increase its diesel exports by a third in June compared to May, or around 500,000 barrels per day.
In addition, “it is difficult to re-engage in oil as a meeting of OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies of the OPEC+ agreement) approaches, from which no new information is expected. drop” in production, added Edward Moya, about the ministerial gathering organized on Sunday.
On top of all these factors, Eli Rubin superimposed the file of the American debt ceiling.
The White House and the Republican opposition in Congress announced on Saturday that they had reached an agreement to avoid default, “but we see signs of resistance in the House of Representatives” as to the content of this compromise, underlines the analyst.
“As long as the text has not been adopted (it must be voted on by Congress), the risk of a crisis is not ruled out,” he believes, which weighs on gold prices. black.