We understand very well that Justin Trudeau wanted to follow his father’s example by signing a pact with Jagmeeth Singh which in principle guarantees his government the support of the NDP until June 2025. It is more difficult to understand why the leader of the NDP did not learn the lesson of the misadventure of his distant predecessor, David Lewis.
The story has been recalled for two days. Fifty years ago, in fairly similar circumstances, Trudeau Sr. had entered into an alliance with Mr. Lewis, after the bitter defeat suffered by the Liberals, who had lost 38 deputies and found themselves in the minority in the House of Commons.
This agreement was not as formal as the one reached on Monday, with its somewhat convoluted arrangements to ensure collaboration in parliamentary work and the follow-up of commitments made. Regardless, politics cares very little about formalities as soon as they become the least bit inconvenient.
Trudeau senior had appreciated as a connoisseur the campaign of the NDP leader, who had had great success in denouncing the big companies, which he called the ” corporate welfare bums “. Believing that Canada was not benefiting sufficiently from the Alberta oil exploited by American oil companies, at a time when the prices of black gold were exploding, the two men had agreed on the creation of Petro-Canada and the Agence de screening of foreign investments.
The marriage came to an abrupt end in 1974, when the NDP and the Conservatives jointly passed a motion of censure of the government after the budget was presented. Miscalculation. The Liberals regained their majority and the NDP lost half of its seats, including Mr. Lewis’s. New Democrat activists had not forgiven him for having “slept” with the Liberals.
So why does Mr. Singh agree to commit himself in this way, when he could undoubtedly have obtained the same results and perhaps even more by monetizing his support one budget at a time? Admitting that he is motivated by the public interest, which would be to his credit, it would be naive to believe that voters will give him credit for any achievements resulting from this collaboration. We know very well which, the fly or the coach, leads us to a good destination.
It is perhaps the prospect of seeing Pierre Poilievre become leader of the Conservative Party that worries him. That would indeed bode very badly for the NDP. Rather than see this dinosaur become prime minister, many New Democrat voters would rather support the Liberals.
However, it is difficult to see how the alliance with Mr. Trudeau would prevent this catastrophe. If the progressives are likely to side with him, why wouldn’t the prime minister jump at the chance to regain a majority by calling a snap election, no matter his deal with Mr. Singh?
Speculation is rife about his future. It is true that he sometimes gives the impression of wanting to move on. This is also what his father seemed to have decided after his defeat in May 1979. However, he could not miss the opportunity offered by the unexpected overthrow of Joe Clark’s government. At his age, Justin Trudeau can well delay his walk in the snow for a few years, even if it means making Chrystia Freeland wait a little.
It was quite satisfying to hear the Conservatives express their indignation at the formation of this new “Liberal-NDP majority government” which will sink the country into socialism. Ah, if Jean Charest was there to point the way to the happy medium for Canadians!
Yves-François Blanchet wanted to be just as worried to see a centralizing duo “trampling” the fields of provincial jurisdiction, not to mention the party who is preparing for the burial of Law 21 on secularism.
Gilles Duceppe may have said that the politics of the worst is the worst of politics, the defense of Quebec’s interests against federal attacks remains the best business of the Bloc. The more these interests seem threatened, the more its electoral value increases.
At the rate things are going, the Premier of Quebec, François Legault, will soon no longer know where to turn. The relative insignificance of the Trudeau government since the last federal election was the lesser evil, but the objectives set out in the pact with the NDP herald new turbulence in federal-provincial relations.
Whether it’s setting up a dental insurance plan, funding the addition of doctors and nurses or even investing in mental health, these are in principle areas reserved for the provinces. But would the population, in Quebec as in the rest of the country, take such a dim view of Ottawa getting involved? Trudeau Sr. never gave a damn about the lamentations of the provinces and reigned for nearly 16 years.