Jair Bolsonaro, who was on vacation in the south of the country, had to rush back to Sao Paulo early on January 3, where he was immediately hospitalized with a bowel obstruction. This is his 4th hospitalization in three years, since he was the victim of an assassination attempt with a knife during the 2018 campaign.
The Brazilian presidency did not comment, however the Vila Nova Star hospital where he is being treated released a photo of him. We see him thumbs up in defiance, but bedridden with a nasogastric tube. Depending on the results of the exams, Bolsonaro, who is 66, could undergo a new operation after the one already carried out last July. He was then hospitalized for a short week.
The far-right president was on vacation by the sea in the south of the country when he experienced pain in his abdomen. These holidays were also controversial since he had preferred to continue jetskiing or frequenting amusement parks while last week, the Bahia region, much further north, was ravaged by floods: 500,000 people affected, 136 municipalities placed in a state of emergency.
All this is therefore happening at the dawn of an election year, because in Brazil too we are preparing to vote, a little later than in France: the presidential election in Brazil is scheduled for October 2 (for the 1st round) then on October 30 in the event of a second round. And it is perhaps the most anticipated election, in any case the most electric and the most polarized of the year 2022.
Bolsonaro seems determined to represent himself. And he will undoubtedly find in front of him the great historical figure of the Brazilian left: the former trade unionist and president Lula, who has regained his freedom after the dropping of the corruption charges against him. Lula, who has not yet declared himself, is the big favorite in the poll: opinion polls give him for the moment between 10 and 20 points ahead of Bolsonaro. No other credible candidate has emerged so far, despite the hopes of the center-right and in particular of the governor of Sao Paulo, Joao Doria. Between Lula and Bolsonaro, two very different personalities, incarnations of two radically different Brazilians, we must therefore expect a very hard and very tense campaign. Bolsonaro has already hinted that he would not recognize his defeat in the event of failure at the polls.
Another victory for Bolsonaro seems unlikely, but remains possible. Paradoxically, his state of health serves him well. With each hospitalization, he poses both a victim of violence and a man who resists everything. And then Lula is even older, 76 years old. It is therefore not immune to health problems either. Second, opinion polls are not very reliable in Brazil. And Bolsonaro can count on a real electoral base: the army, financial circles, agribusiness, and the evangelical electorate, about 30% of the population.
That said, Bolsonaro’s record is bad, in particular because of his obscurantism in the fight against the pandemic: already more than 620,000 dead in Brazil. And yet we are only talking about official figures. The real toll, according to many doctors, is at least three times as heavy.