Paul Valéry, French poet and literary critic, once said: “Even the future is no longer what it was”. For anyone born in the 1970s, which is the “average” date of birth of our 338 MPs, this moment is anything but the future we expected.
Posted at 10:00 a.m.
However, the post-Cold War era seemed promising. We now know that this promise never materialized. Rather, the past few years have been characterized by widespread economic anxiety, increased political polarization and growing populism.
It’s not that the last 30 years have been without major events. We have witnessed terrorism, wars and recessions, and a major financial crisis.
But there is growing evidence that the gravity of the challenges we face today represent a turning point in modern history. To quote former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers in a recent interview, the present moment demands that we give ourselves a “new rigor”.
None of us would have imagined living through a global pandemic of this magnitude and duration. And yet. Such a waste ! The carnage of our health system, we are told repeatedly, is caused by its underfunding. Yet Canada is one of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries that spend the most on health care. Total health care spending in Canada is expected to reach a new high of $308 billion in 2021. When will the real structural reforms begin?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine challenged the liberal post-World War II architecture and order that we have taken for granted for three decades. Certainly, the intensification of the Sino-American rivalry – and the new geoeconomic era – has brought about significant changes in international relations. But this has never directly threatened our security as the Russian invasion on Ukrainian soil has just done. As we watch Ukrainians courageously defend themselves with limited means, it is time to inject new rigor into the conduct of our own foreign and defense policy.
We have known for some time that climate change poses a serious threat to humanity. The scientific consensus is clear: the consequences will soon be irreversible. Yet it turns out that the world cannot live without energy. The current supply is not sufficient to meet growing demand, which explains the surge in the price of a barrel of oil on the markets. How we execute this necessary transition is likely to be the biggest challenge we face. Seriousness still prevails.
We have already experienced periods of sustained inflation, but rarely have we seen such intense pressure on central banks in the outcome of an economic crisis as unique as it is unpredictable. Governments have not helped the cause by “over-stimulating” the economy. The recalibration of fiscal policy will be essential. But for central banks, the emergency landing is perilous: if interest rates rise too quickly, it will most certainly create a recession. If they rise too slowly, inflation could be even harder to contain over time. Given the level of public and private debt, and as the federal government prepares for a budget expected next month, it is time to adopt new rigor in our budgetary policy and the management of our public finances.
American economist Robert Gordon is well known for his pessimistic projections on productivity and economic growth. We can debate the best prescriptions for growing our economy in the long term, but we must also be clear about the consequences of inaction.
The standard of living of future generations will decline if we put economic growth on the back burner. As other countries move forward with their own ambitious strategies, it is time for Canada to be ambitious.
Populism is not a new phenomenon, but politicians acting as conspiracy theorists and applauding illegal protests are not a trivial development. Whatever the causes, the consequences on our collective life are real. It is time to take seriously the fragility of our democracy.
In many ways, uncertainty is a token of our new reality. Some of our anchors – just think of the liberal international trading order, our healthcare system, the sustainability of our planet and our public finances – are now much more vulnerable to future shocks.
In such circumstances, fatalism is not indicated. It has never been more important to believe in human agency. Progress is a choice. History is there to prove it.
If perfection is not possible, serious solutions must nevertheless emerge from our democratic system. This may not be the future the current generation of leaders prepared for, but it is the one they must now face.
* Robert Asselin was an advisor to two prime ministers of Canada.