Ireland, England, Scotland and France… What coronation scenarios for the four contenders for final victory

For the second time since the introduction of offensive and defensive bonus points, four teams can still win the Six Nations Tournament before the final day, Saturday.

If the improved victory of the XV of France against Wales (24-45), Sunday March 10, did not completely reshuffle the cards in this 25th edition of the Six Nations Tournament, it at least had the merit of leaving the Blues alive. Grégory Alldritt’s teammates are in fact five points behind Ireland, and can still mathematically hope to achieve an improbable final victory, in the same way as Scotland and England. The fact remains that Ireland, title holders, is best placed to succeed… Focus on the different scenarios which would crown the Blues, and the chances of their competitors.

Sacred Ireland if…

The XV du Trègle has its destiny in its hands. Leaders since the start of the competition, the Irish suffered an unexpected setback at Twickenham, and are now only four points ahead of their English tormentor. Protected by this small mattress, Bundee Aki’s teammates will win the Tournament if they succeed against Scotland on the final day (Saturday March 16 at 5:45 p.m. live on France 2 and france.tv), whatever the other results. .

They will also be titled in the event of a draw, or defeat with the defensive bonus point. This latter situation, however, implies that England does not beat the France team with the bonus and by more than 83 points. If Andy Farrell’s men lose without a bonus, they will then have to count on an English or French victory without the slightest bonus, to lift the trophy. In this case, the Irish would become the first to win twice in a row in the Tournament since England in 2016-2017.

Sacred England if…

Runners-up to the Irish after their resounding success against the world number 1, the English had an excellent winter, following on from a World Cup where they finished on the third step of the podium. Four points behind in the standings, Steve Borthwick’s men are condemned to the feat in Lyon, against the French XV (Saturday March 16 at 9 p.m. live on France 2 and france.tv), to lift the trophy.

England will be crowned champions of this 2024 edition if they win with the offensive bonus against the Blues, and at the same time Ireland loses against Scotland without taking the slightest bonus point. If the Irish were to take a bonus point, Maro Itoje and his team would need this famous victory against the Blues by 83 points…

Sacred Scotland if…

Let’s enter the wacky world of science fiction. Defeated by Italy on the fourth day, Scotland missed an incredible chance to come back to level with Ireland. Third in the standings, the Scots paradoxically have their destiny largely in their hands.

Scotland will be crowned champions if they win in Dublin by 39 points, and without leaving the offensive bonus point to the Clover XV. At the same time, England must not win against France, while preventing the Blues from scoring more than 7 tries in the event of success. In this situation, Finn Russell’s teammates will be able to lift their first trophy since 1999.

Sacred France if…

Coming off the poor performance against Italy in Lille, it’s difficult to talk about a title on the French side. It still is, but hopes are not 100% extinguished. Fourth in the standings, five points behind Ireland, the Blues have the same difference in points as Scotland, third, and are only ahead in the number of tries (11 for Scotland, 10 for the French XV), which places them in the most complex situation among the four contenders.

France will be crowned champion if it beats England with the offensive bonus point, and at the same time, Scotland dominates Ireland without either team taking the slightest bonus. The Blues must, in this way, make up for a deficit of 76 points on the Irish, by scoring at least eight tries. If Scotland takes the bonus against the XV of Clover, the Blues will have to score at least two more tries than the XV of Thistle. Their victory must therefore be larger than that of Scotland against Ireland, to remain ahead of Greg Townsend’s men on points difference. Tiny chances then, but they exist…