India and Canada plunge into a diplomatic crisis rarely seen since the Cold War

OTTAWA – The diplomatic crisis between India and Canada has taken on a rarely seen scale, reminiscent of the Cold War era, as New Delhi demands the departure of two-thirds of Canadian diplomats posted in the country.

• Read also: Canada wants to keep diplomats in India, threatened with expulsion

• Read also: Indian police search homes of journalists and activists

• Read also: On the international stage, Canada is back… home

The Indian government has given Ottawa until October 10 to repatriate 41 of its 61 diplomats posted in the country, according to information obtained by the British daily Financial Times.

This is another retaliatory measure since Justin Trudeau said there were “serious allegations” linking the Indian government to the assassination of a Canadian citizen of Sikh origin, Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

“It’s a huge step that will be a big blow to our relations,” said Artur Wilczynski, former Canadian ambassador to Norway. This is unprecedented. It’s reminiscent of the worst years of the Soviet Union.”

In the same vein, the former Canadian ambassador to China, Guy St-Jacques, sees it as “an extraordinary and very worrying development” which “confirms that Indo-Canadian relations are in free fall and that it is going to be very difficult to restore confidence.

In the immediate future, he explains that “it will have an immense impact on operations” on the ground, whether we are thinking about the defense of our commercial interests or the processing of visa applications from students wishing to come and study here, For example.

Negotiate to stay

Without wanting to formally confirm New Delhi’s expulsion notice, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have indicated that they want to prevent these expulsions.

“We will continue to be present on the ground to help Canadians who have families to help with relations with, with the Government of India,” Mr. Trudeau said.

“In moments of tension, what is most important is to continue to have people on the ground,” added Ms. Joly, adding that the conversation continues with India “privately” to ensure “ protection” of diplomats.

No reply

India also has 60 diplomats in the country and “CSIS has already informed the government that several are agents who carry out surveillance and harassment of communities here,” indicates Mr. St-Jacques.

According to him, tracking down these agents would be a way to respond. But Prime Minister Trudeau signaled that he did not intend to respond, even if he did not deny his allegations: “We are going to remain firm, we are not going to try to provoke,” he said.

Mr Wilczynski approves of this cautious attitude. For him, it is crucial to be “cautious and measured” and to consult our allies to “calm things down” and “protect our interests”.

Lack of vision

Mr. St-Jacques, however, has few illusions about an end to the crisis, because India has “a strategic advantage” over Canada in this diplomatic war. He explains that our allies are cultivating their ties with New Delhi, the largest market in the world, but also a counterweight to China. It is therefore unlikely that they will come to the aid of Ottawa.

The same day it demanded the departure of Canadian diplomats, India also invited the French giant TotalEnergies to compete to obtain oil exploration rights in the country. India currently imports 84% ​​of the oil it consumes.

For Mr. St-Jacques, this crisis is yet another demonstration of the Trudeau government’s lack of vision and depth in matters of international relations.

“We cannot base a foreign policy on the color of socks and selfies,” complains the career diplomat. It takes depth, expertise. This involves investments in defense and development.”