Franceinfo would like to point out that a poll is not a prediction, but a photograph of public opinion at a given moment. A survey is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the more the margin of error increases. For more details, here is everything you need to know to decipher the polls.
A succession of good polls. In recent days, Valérie Pécresse has made a notable breakthrough in the opinion polls of several institutes, in parallel with her appointment by the activists Les Républicains. Saccording to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for franceinfo and The Parisian-Today in France published Wednesday, December 8, the LR presidential candidate appears in second position, behind Emmanuel Macron and tied with Marine Le Pen, with 16% of voting intentions in the first round (up 4 points compared to October ).
At Harris Interactive, she also gained three points, to 14% of voting intentions, in a poll released on December 6 for Challenges. The Ifop institute places it at 17% in a poll published the same day for Le Figaro and LCI, ie 7 points more than during their last barometer. The president of the Ile-de-France region also catches up with the candidate of the National Rally, credited with the same score (and who loses 2.5 points).
For the first time, on December 7, an Elabe poll for BFMTV and The Express, even gave the former minister of Nicolas Sarkozy winning in the second round against Emmanuel Macron, with 52% voting intentions against 48 for the outgoing president. In the first round, Valérie Pécresse was credited with 20% in this opinion poll, or 11 points more than in the previous poll.
The candidate’s entourage can only rejoice at this survey surge. “It is indeed the breath that we expected and that we sensed at the end of the congress, assures Franceinfo the LR deputy of Essonne Robin Reda, early support of Valérie Pécresse.
“The revelation is successful and we have found the attentive ear of those who had turned away from us.”
Robin Reda, LR deputyto franceinfo
The former mayor of Juvisy-sur-Orge still believes that all this is “good omen to tell them about our project” and demonstrate “our credibility to govern”, even if it is still necessary “establish this score over time”.
For pollsters, these good voting intentions confirm a trend. “The appointment of Valérie Pécresse freed the people of the right, thus deciphers Frédéric Dabi, Director General of Ifop, in Le Figaro. There was a question about the impact of the primary, with a greatly reduced electorate compared to that of 2016, but the effect is there. “
How to explain then “this effect” Pécresse in the polls? The first answer can be summed up in two words: surprise and notoriety. “Few people knew her before the primary. Her victory at the LR congress gave her real notoriety in just a few days. Obviously, it stimulates her in the polls”, thus estimates the political scientist Jérôme Sainte-Marie with BFM.
This phenomenon is fairly classic, nuance Mathieu Gallard, research director at the Ipsos Sopra-Steria institute. “The little-known candidates who win a surprise victory are on the rise in the polls. We have seen it on the left in 2011 with François Hollande, in 2016 with François Fillon and in 2017 with Benoît Hamon”, explains the expert, who adds that “The media then put forward positive aspects of the nominated candidate to everyone’s surprise.” This is the case for Valérie Pécresse, “few people betting on her, as was the case with Fillon” and unlike a Yannick Jadot or an Anne Hidalgo who were the favorites of their camp to lead the presidential fight and who did not benefit from a dynamic in the polls.
The major stake remains to register this dynamic in time. “Does it last or does it not last?” sums up Mathieu Gallard. The pollster recalls the example of Benoît Hamon, who rose to 18% of voting intentions after his victory in the Socialist primary and who finally finished at 6.4% in the first round of the 2017 presidential election. A scenario that can’t imagine the Pécresse team. Benoît Hamon’s camp was “weakened” and “with much more porosity with LFI”, assures Robin Reda, convinced that “the low water level shows that the right is expected”.
Still, at this stage of the campaign, nothing is set in stone. “We are more than four months away from the poll, nothing is settled, recalls Mathieu Gallard. There is a lot of uncertainty but also volatility between electorates. “ It should also be remembered that the polls are only a snapshot of the electorate at a time T and that they contain margins of error. Caution is needed more than ever. For those around him, “the watchword is: ‘no triumphalism'”. And as Valérie Pécresse herself would say, “the polls, it goes, it comes, it’s like the tail of the dog”.