Haiti | The Prime Minister is leaving, calm will wait

The announcement of the departure of Prime Minister Ariel Henry, who was criticized from all sides in Haiti, marks a notable breakthrough on the political level, but in no way resolves the security problem posed by the action of powerful armed gangs.

Why was Ariel Henry controversial?

The Prime Minister took de facto head of the country in 2021 following the assassination by an armed commando of President Jovenel Moïse and has managed it since without having to deal with Parliament, which was no longer operational. Under his leadership, armed gangs grew in importance to control nearly 80% of the capital, Port-au-Prince. The population’s anger on this subject came in addition to criticism from political parties and members of civil society who accused him of not having organized elections as planned with a view to leaving power on February 7.

Why has he now resigned himself to leaving power?

Ariel Henry argued that it was necessary to restore calm to the country before considering holding elections. He was in Kenya to formalize the sending of an international security force to Haiti when armed gangs banded together to storm numerous police stations and blockade the airport with the stated aim of preventing his return. The prime minister found himself stuck in Puerto Rico for 10 days with no prospect of returning. On Monday, several Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries met urgently in Jamaica with representatives from the United States, France, Canada and Haitian society to discuss a possible political transition before announce the departure of the Prime Minister. Velda Felbab-Brown, an analyst at the Brookings Institution, notes that the United States, which supported Ariel Henry, ultimately concluded that he could not ensure the transition and abandoned him, depriving him of his last important support . “Everyone in Haiti wanted him to leave,” she said.

Who will replace him?

Guyanese President Irfaan Ali, who currently heads CARICOM, said a “transitional presidential council” would be formed to appoint a new prime minister and ultimately pave the way for elections, the last dating back to 2016. The new council, which will include seven voting members and two non-voting members, will bring together representatives from the major political parties, the private sector and the Montana Group, a civil society coalition. People aspiring to become president will not be able to sit there. Ariel Henry indicated in a video addressed to the population that his government would take over in the interim and will step down as soon as the council has been put in place. He intermediary asked Haitians “to remain calm” and “to do everything to bring peace to the country”.

Will the security situation improve due to the departure of the Prime Minister?

Nothing guarantees this, since armed gangs now control large swaths of the territory, particularly in the capital region, and have no reason to retreat under the pretext that a political unblocking is emerging. The transition council must develop a short-term plan to improve security, but it has little chance of success if the expected international force is not able to stand up to the gangs and control the recaptured territory, notes M^me Felbab-Brown. The Kenyan government said Tuesday that it intended to wait before deploying a thousand police officers to Haiti as planned due to political upheavals complicating the situation. A lot of uncertainty also remains regarding the mandate of the members of this force, who must, according to the Brookings Institution researcher, be equipped with significant offensive capabilities if they want to be able to influence the security balance. Jimmy “Barbecue” Chérizier, a powerful gang leader, declared that he would not recognize a government resulting from the political meeting on Monday, an analyst from the International Crisis Group, Renata Segura, indicated online Tuesday.

Can we hope for an improvement in the situation for the population?

Haitians, particularly residents of the capital, have been hit hard by the action of the gangs, who have intensified their attacks since the conclusion of a temporary alliance to overthrow the government of Ariel Henry. Sandra Lamarque, who coordinates Doctors Without Borders’ actions in Haiti, notes that the organization has had to significantly expand its facilities in Port-au-Prince recently to cope with the influx of injured civilians. “We see a lot of women and children taking stray bullets,” she said. Nearly 15,000 people have been forced to move in recent weeks, pushing the total to nearly 400,000 nationwide. Many have found refuge in poorly adapted establishments, such as schools, or are holed up in their homes and struggling to get supplies. The World Food Program warned Tuesday that more than 1 million Haitians are “one step away from famine.” M^me Lamarque said he hoped the political agreement announced Tuesday would lead at a minimum to the unblocking of critical infrastructure, such as the port through which the majority of humanitarian aid must pass.