“The Ukrainian crisis for Turkey is an opportunity to bring the country out of its situation of isolation”said this Thursday, August 18 on franceinfo Bayram Balci, director of the French Institute for Anatolian Studies in Istanbul, while a trilateral meeting is being held this Thursday in Lviv between Volodymyr Zelensky, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Antonio Guterres. “So far, Turkey’s role” in this conflict is “a success”adds the researcher.
franceinfo: After six months of war, what can we say about Turkey’s role?
Bayram Balci: Turkey’s role is quite singular and crucial because Turkey has complex relations with both protagonists. Turkey has important economic relations with Russia. There is a certain dependency because it imports Russian gas. It also receives a lot of Russian tourists, which is crucial for its economy. Moreover, many Turkish companies work in Russia. There is therefore a need for economic cooperation.
Erdogan in Lviv to meet Zelinsky: “Turkey fears Russia”, its terrible neighbor but “supports Ukraine militarily” since the annexation of Crimea, explains researcher Bayram Balci who believes that his role as arbitrator has however here “was a success”. pic.twitter.com/iY7T6Z3qKm
— franceinfo (@franceinfo) August 18, 2022
However, Turkey also fears Russia. Historically, relations between the two countries have always been complicated. Turkey is vulnerable because it is surrounded by Russia to the east, north and south. As a result, Turkey is obliged to measure its policy in the Ukrainian conflict because it depends on its interests. With Ukraine, relations are much simpler. Ukraine is a partner that has good economic and military relations with Turkey. We tend to forget it, but Turkey has been supporting Ukraine militarily since the beginning of the Russian invasion and even before. Ukrainian tourists also come in large numbers to Turkey. Therefore, Turkey feels the need to play a role of conciliatory mediator between the two.
Do you think that the term “referee” corresponds to Turkey in this war?
I think that is Turkey’s intention. Moreover, the role played by Turkey and its President Erdogan has been a success because there have been three meetings between Russians and Ukrainians organized in Turkey. In addition to that, the agreement on the resumption of grain exports was made with the support of Turkey. Will Turkey be able to go further and bring a solution to the war? It’s complicated to say. Nevertheless, so far Turkey’s role is a success. We can also say that there is a calculation on the part of Turkey to be able to reconcile with a good part of its partners and its neighbors. As a result, the Ukrainian crisis for Turkey is a risk but also an opportunity to get the country out of its situation of isolation which was beginning to become quite burdensome for the political power in Turkey.
Turkey supports Ukraine and yet does not subscribe to European sanctions against Russia. Isn’t it amazing?
It is surprising, but at the same time, if we look at Turkey’s position, the particularity of the Turkish position, the proximity both to Ukraine and to Russia, the fact that Turkey is not Western, that it is not in the European Union, if the Russian economy collapses, it would be a disaster for Turkey. The country imports 55% of its gas from Russia. Moreover, the first group of tourists to visit Turkey are the Russians. It should not be believed that Turkey gets along with Russia 100%. The relationship is complex between the two countries. Even though we often compare Erdogan and Putin, who are two authoritarian leaders, Turkey is very suspicious of Russia and Putin because it knows that it is not a 100% reliable partner.