How could Donald Trump’s threat to members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) affect Canada?
“If Trump takes back his seat [au bureau Ovale], its financing of military defense will be a priority. And that’s something Canada should be concerned about,” said Ann Fitz-Gerald, professor of political science at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario, and director of the Balsillie School of International Affairs.
Indeed, Canada does not contribute to NATO [pour une valeur équivalant à] 2% of its gross domestic product – one of the ex-US president’s complaints. In 2006, NATO members agreed that they would devote at least 2% of their gross domestic product to financing the Alliance. In 2023, despite an increase following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, only a third of allied countries respected this commitment.
In the current geopolitical context, the defense of the Arctic, against China or Russia, in particular, is a crucial issue, explains Mme Fitz Gerald. A withdrawal of American support could prove disastrous, according to her.
” The comment [de M. Trump] indicates a tone and position linked to long-term support for NATO priorities and operations, she analyzes. This shows that the complex system of multilateralism and world order as we know it is in danger. And that makes medium-sized economies like ours vulnerable. »
“It sends a signal that the United States would be ready to let authoritarian regimes do as they see fit,” also says American political analyst Amélie Escobar.
“Putin must be rubbing his hands with a smile from ear to ear,” she maintains. All that is stopping him for the moment from going further in his offensive is the probability that there will be a significant reaction led by the Americans to secure the endangered regions, particularly in Europe. »
Donald Trump has often attacked NATO. What’s different this time?
During his first term, Donald Trump, like other American presidents, had in fact criticized allied countries for not paying their fair share in military spending.
To senior American officials, he even mentioned the wish to withdraw from the alliance. “It is legitimate to say that the United States pays much more than other countries. At the same time, they also have much more weight in the alliance,” argues Rafaël Jacob, associate researcher at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.
This time, the former American president went further. He said that in the event of an attack on a NATO member country that does not pay its “share,” the United States would not be complying with Article 5 of the alliance. This article states that an attack on one country will lead to defense by all others. The ex-president even went so far as to say that he would encourage Moscow to “do what it wants” with the attacked country.
PHOTO KEVIN LAMARQUE, REUTERS ARCHIVES
US President Joe Biden
“For Donald Trump to admit that he plans to give Putin the green light for more war and violence, to continue his brutal assault on a free Ukraine and to extend his aggression to the people of Poland and the Baltic states is distressing and dangerous,” President Joe Biden said in a press release on Sunday.
“Other American presidents have used diplomacy to talk about NATO spending,” observes Aurel Braun, professor of political science at the University of Toronto and researcher for the Center for Russia and European Studies. ballast. “Donald Trump acts like a bully by saying: if you don’t pay, I won’t defend you. But that’s not how NATO works. »
Why such an outing against NATO now?
Donald Trump’s statement comes in the middle of the Republican nomination campaign and, of course, in the middle of an election year in the United States. At the same time, discussions are taking place in the Senate concerning military aid that could be granted to Ukraine. A favorable context for its untimely exit, believes Todd Belt, director of the political science program at George Washington University, in Washington.
First, Donald Trump is trying to drive a wedge with the position of his Republican opponent Nikki Haley, Mr. Belt maintains. The former United States ambassador to the United Nations was quick to publicly denounce her rival’s comments regarding NATO.
On Sunday, a vote in the American Senate also made it possible to advance an envelope of 60 billion in support of Ukraine, led in particular by the leader of the Republicans in the upper house, Mitch McConnell. The amount must still be approved by the House of Representatives.
“There is a power struggle between Mitch McConnell and Donald Trump,” explains Mr. Belt. SO [avec sa sortie sur l’OTAN], Donald Trump is trying to bring the Republican Party back to his ideas. He goes further than before [dans ses menaces] because someone within the Republican Party is challenging him. »
AMERICAN AIR FORCE PHOTO, PROVIDED BY AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE
US Air Force F-35A Lightning II and F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets at Kunsan military base, South Korea
If he became President of the United States again, would Donald Trump risk carrying out his threat to NATO?
There is only one certainty: Donald Trump is unpredictable, agree all the experts consulted by The Press. “I think we have to take his words seriously, but not literally,” says Aurel Braun.
Donald Trump’s threats are aimed at negotiating with NATO member countries, he analyzes. But they do not necessarily reflect his foreign policy if he becomes president again in November. “While he was president, Donald Trump increased funding for NATO and American defense,” recalls Mr. Braun.
“Are these responsible comments? Many people will answer categorically no. At the same time, is this a concrete commitment? No more,” observes Rafael Jacob.
Donald Trump’s current isolationist position appeals to part of his electoral base, specialists explain. “I think his comments are intended for a national audience, not an international audience,” says Todd Belt. I think it’s rhetorical on his part. »
In other words, his exit is a way to win the Republican nomination for a return to the White House. “Donald Trump is an opportunist, not an ideologue,” emphasizes Aurel Braun. He says what he thinks is necessary to win his campaign, not what his policies would be once in power. And he will have no shame in changing his tune later. »
With Agence France-Presse
Words denounced around the world
Reckless Statements on NATO Security and Article 5 Solidarity Only Serve Putin’s Interests [et] bring neither more security nor more peace to the world.
Charles Michel, President of the European Council
Any suggestion that Allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the United States, and places American and European soldiers at increased risk.
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General
One for all and all for one. This NATO credo ensures the security of more than 950 million people.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Germany in a press release on the X network