There comes a time when excuses and even the most convincing explanations are no longer enough.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
You need results.
This is what is happening with Canada and Quebec at the COP27 on the climate which is currently taking place in Egypt.
Canada is the only G7 country to attend without having succeeded in lowering its emissions since the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015.
Quebec, for its part, has actually increased its emissions since then.
It is not surprising that neither Justin Trudeau nor François Legault dare to show up in Sharm el-Sheikh.
Besides the obvious climate impacts, this inability to bend emissions curves causes two problems.
First, on the international scene, this can only result in a loss of credibility and influence for Canada and Quebec. According to some observers, this erosion has already begun.
Then, on the local scene, this lack of results risks giving ammunition to citizens and politicians who claim that the fight against climate change is a sword in the water.
However, good things are being done for the climate in Quebec and Canada. But in each case, the strategies have holes that lead to gains.
In Quebec, the explosion of emissions in the transportation sector completely undermines the reductions recorded in industry and in waste management.
At the federal level, Justin Trudeau invested a lot of political capital in fighting all the way to the Supreme Court against three of his own provinces (Ontario, Saskatchewan and Alberta) to introduce a price on carbon across the country. This struggle was courageous.
His government has also passed a “Carbon Neutral Accountability Act” that obliges governments to come up with credible climate plans.
Unfortunately, the federal government still harbors the illusion that the oil and gas industry can increase production while reducing emissions. For now, it’s not working.
Result: in Canada as in Quebec, emissions are not falling, despite the commitments made by our governments to their citizens and to the international community.
It is more and more embarrassing to defend against the many countries which, themselves, generate reductions.
“Sharing the burden of responding to climate change, both in terms of reducing emissions and supporting adaptation in developing countries, will be an increasingly important factor in international relations”, warns this subject the former Canadian ambassador for climate change, Patricia Fuller, in a report tabled this week.
It’s not surprising. The climate emergency is the greatest challenge facing humanity and it requires a concerted response. Those who do not do their part will be looked down upon more and more. It is the credibility and influence of Canada and Quebec that are at stake.
For Justin Trudeau, however, the problem does not come only from the outside. The Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre have already promised to abolish the carbon tax. If the Liberals fail to demonstrate a clear reduction in emissions by the next election, their opponents will have a fair chance to say that this tax — and all the measures deployed to reduce GHGs — do not work.
The lack of results also complicates Mr. Trudeau’s task when it comes to attacking Mr. Poilievre’s retrograde positions on the climate. Positions that would lead to an even worse balance sheet than the one we see today.
The dynamic is different in Quebec, but voters may also end up getting tired of broken promises.
Time flies. And the reasons to plug the holes in our climate policies and to deliver (finally!) real reductions are more numerous and pressing than ever.