It is generally said that a by-election is an opportunity to send a message to the government, but it can also happen that voters take the opportunity to send a message to the opposition parties.
In the general election of October 3, the former leader of the Liberal Party of Quebec, Dominique Anglade, won with 36.1% of the vote in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne, followed by the candidate of Quebec solidaire, Guillaume Cliche-Rivard (27.7%), far ahead of the representatives of the Coalition avenir Québec (17.7%), the Parti Québécois (8.2%) and the Conservative Party of Québec (6.3%).
The by-election to be held there on March 13 therefore takes on the appearance of a rematch between the PLQ and QS, who both feel an urgent need for good news after difficult months.
One need only take a look at the linguistic characteristics of the riding to see that the chances of victory for the CAQ and the PQ, not to mention the PCQ, are practically non-existent. In the 2021 census, 53.4% of Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne residents had French as their mother tongue, 21.3% English and 25.3% another language.
While the CAQ has asked a young political attaché to make an appearance, neither the PQ nor the PCQ have yet nominated a candidate. Obviously, none of them have high hopes for this by-election.
On the other hand, the speed with which the interim leader of the PLQ, Marc Tanguay, opened hostilities against QS testifies to the importance that the Liberals attach to this fight.
From the outset, he had indicated that he was looking for a candidate opposed to Law 96 on the language, accusing QS of having “a double discourse on the defense of rights and freedoms”. At the point where it is, the PLQ has no objection to pass for the “party of the English”.
While it is true that QS was the only opposition party to vote for Bill 96, despite certain reservations, a good number of English-speaking voters remembered last fall the positive reception that the PLQ had reserved for it. at the beginning.
Memory is perhaps a faculty that forgets, but it still has to be given time. Some voters in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne might also remember that less than a week ago, the Liberals supported the motion of the Legault government demanding the departure of Amira Elghawaby, while QS instead chose to abstain.
Losing this fortified castle would be a real disaster for the PLQ. Its candidate, the multilingual entrepreneur Christopher Baenninger, who had obtained an honorable second place behind the indelible Manon Massé in Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques, is a quality candidate. If he does not manage to win, we will have to conclude that the situation of the party is even more desperate than we thought.
Needless to say, a Liberal defeat would not be likely to stimulate aspirations to succeed Dominique Anglade.
Still reeling from the disappointment caused by the October 3 results, Québec solidaire is betting big on Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne. “One more is always the fun “, declared Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois. In reality, it is about much more than the possible arrival of a twelfth united deputy in the National Assembly.
In the absence of regional expansion, a victory on March 13 would at least show that progress is still possible on the island of Montreal, while a defeat would have all the appearance of a worrying electoral ceiling for the future.
QS is essentially targeting the same multicultural clientele as the PLQ. Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois assures that QS will not spend the campaign responding to Liberal attacks, but he nevertheless presents Guillaume Cliche-Rivard, a lawyer specializing in immigration law, as “a strong voice for inclusion”.
Given the low score recorded by the PQ last fall, expectations of it are modest. But, in the not-so-distant past, the party has already produced quite honorable performances in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne. Before 2018, its candidates systematically came second, with a result often above 30%.
This constituency is certainly not the most fertile ground for the sovereignist discourse. On the other hand, with 53.1%, the No had not won with such an overwhelming majority as those observed in the West Island of Montreal in 1995.
Despite the success of esteem obtained by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the PQ is not in the race. But a progression of a few points would already be encouraging.