OTTAWA | Canada passed the 40 million population mark on Friday, with its foot firmly on the demographic accelerator. At the current rate, we could be 50 million in barely ten years, whereas it took 26 years to go from 30 million to 40 million inhabitants. Deciphering historical growth.
A country of immigration
Since the gold rush at the end of the 19th century, the Canadian population has grown with successive waves of immigration. Only the baby boom, following the Second World War, allowed births to replace the crowds of Europeans arriving by boat. Thus, at Confederation in 1867, we went from 3.4 million inhabitants spread over four provinces, from the Maritimes to Ontario, to 20 million people in 1966, spread from east to west. Since then, immigration has compensated for the constantly declining birth rate.
Statistics Canada
Exponential growth boosted by immigration
Canada is experiencing the highest population growth in the G7 at 2.7%, unheard of since the 1957 baby boom (3.3%). This time it is not the birth rate, but immigration which is the main driver of growth (96% of growth in 2022). Last year, we welcomed a record 1.1 million people. More than half, however, were temporary immigrants. Although this is the main route to permanent residence today, there is no guarantee that they will settle permanently, especially if they cannot find housing or find a job to match. of their skills and aspirations.
PHOTO: MARTIN ALARIE / LE JOURNAL DE MONTREAL
Canada could catch up with more populous countries
If Canada manages to convince temporary immigrants to stay, it could catch up with countries whose populations are declining or growing more slowly. While the Canadian population grew by 10.17% between 2012 and 2021, that of Spain (47.4 million inhabitants in 2021) only increased by 1.37% and that of Italy ( 59.11 million inhabitants in 2021) fell by 0.72%. Of the 38 OECD countries, only six showed stronger growth than ours between 2012 and 2021: Luxembourg (20.55%), Israel (18.37%), Iceland (16.15%), Turkey (13.56%), Australia (13%) and Colombia (11.8%).
Quebec will soon be half of I’Ontario
With a higher immigration rate and an already larger population base, Ontario will have twice as many inhabitants as Quebec around 2035-2036, according to Statistics Canada’s rapid growth scenario. The province already has 15.3 million inhabitants and could exceed 21 million in 2043. The weight of the Belle Province in the federation will then fall below the 20% mark, while that of its neighbor will exceed 40% compared to to the whole country. At 8.8 million souls today, Quebec is far from the mark since it will remain below the 10 million mark for several more decades.
Around 100 million inhabitants
The Trudeau government and the Initiative of the Century present immigration, and therefore population growth, as the key to our prosperity and therefore advocate a Canada with a population of 100 million in 2100. But beyond the number of visas that Immigration Canada can deliver, it’s a whole social and economic infrastructure that must follow to ensure a dignified life for newcomers. However, for the moment, this socio-economic infrastructure is not there. In housing alone, while the working-age population rose by 204,000 in the first quarter of 2023 in Canada, new housing starts amounted to only 57,000 units, enough to fuel a social crisis, according to economists.
With the collaboration of Raphaël Pirro, QMI Agency