The standoff between Belarus and the European Union is hardening. While thousands of migrants are still stranded at the border between Poland and Belarus, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has threatened to shut down the gas pipelines that supply Europe. “What if we cut the natural gas going out there?”, he launched, Thursday, November 11.
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In the event of new sanctions from the European Union, the strongman of Minsk assured that his country “will answer[it]”, evoking the possibility of interrupting deliveries of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, which carries Russian gas in particular to Germany and Poland. But can this threat really materialize?
“IIt seems very difficult for Belarus to carry out its threats “, estimates with franceinfo Thierry Bros, professor at Sciences Po Paris, specialist in the geopolitics of energy.
“The pipeline network which passes through Belarusian territory, and brings gas to Europe, is owned by the Gazprom company. It is therefore Russian.”
Thierry Bros, professor at Sciences Poto franceinfo
In addition to this question of ownership, Moscow assured Friday that Russian gas deliveries to Europe would not be suspended, despite threats from Alexander Lukashenko. Russia, Europe’s leading gas supplier, “is and will remain a country which fulfills all its obligations to deliver gas to European consumers”Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
This Moscow development is not insignificant. Russia, Belarus’ main ally, has no interest in falling out with the European Union by playing on the energy front. “It would damage the image of a reliable trading partner that Russia seeks to cultivate and could harm the country in the longer term.”, assured France 24 Arild Moe, from the Norwegian Institute Fridtjof Nansen.
Energy is a major sector for the Russian economy. About 40% of Russian federal budget revenue comes from gas and oil, according to RTBF. “If the main supplier of natural gas to Europe is deemed unreliable, it is the reputation of gas as a whole that will suffer, and encourage Brussels to give a boost to the development of renewable energies”, abounds the economist Agata Łoskot-Strachota, still with France 24.
If, however, Alexander Lukashenko “decided to play the thugs” and to turn off the floodgates against Moscow’s advice, the consequences would be low for Europe. “About 21% of our gas supplies last year passed through Belarus. This is not negligible, but there is still room for Gazprom to increase its transport capacities through Ukraine.”, comments Thierry Bros. According to him, “Alexander Lukashenko sees that the European Commission is very weak on its energy strategy and tries to bluff on this subject”.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, head of the Belarusian opposition, also downplayed the scope of the threat from Alexander Lukashenko. “It would be more damaging for him, for Belarus, than for the European Union and I can assume that it is a bluff”, she said.
Belarusian President “just puts a little pressure on the European Union”, judge Thierry Bros. According to him, “even if it’s just oral, it helps Vladimir Putin”, because in the end, the Russian president shows how much gas supply to Europe depends on him.