Invited to franceinfo on Friday, climatologist Serge Zaka returned to the need to adapt farming practices and meat consumption to new climatic conditions.
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The months of June and July were among the hottest and driest ever recorded in France, a year “peak, for now, but it will be the norm in 25 years”, noted climatologist Serge Zaka on franceinfo on Friday August 12. With drier summers and wetter winters, he points out in particular the need to make more and more stocks for breeders in order to better understand periods of drought.
franceinfo: What are the consequences of the drought for breeders today?
Serge Zaka: When you look at satellite images, it’s very telling: all of France is in yellow. These are not wheat fields but pastures scorched by the sun. We were at less than 21% forage over the year on July 21, now it’s less than 30%. It is hoped that the return of the rain will make it possible to limit this drought which is already having irremediable economic consequences. 2022 will not be the typical year overnight: it will be progressive and we will be able to adapt. The economic consequences of a typical year 2022 are the average ones that we will probably have in 2040-2050. 2022 is a peak for now, it will be the norm in 25 years. We have this time to readapt the whole sector by then.
How to adapt?
A consequence of climate change pointed out by many specialists is that with the milder and wetter winters, the production of fodder will be very important in the spring, when there is water and the weather is mild. But this production will very quickly decrease in the summer. This means more stocks to manage at the spring’s exit in order to be able to feed the animals until the next winter’s exit. This is what we are seeing this year: there are problems with insufficient fodder stocks. Breeders will have to get used to making and managing stocks.
We’re talking about reducing our meat consumption, is that the solution?
Climatologists point to the need to reduce meat consumption to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector. 50% of our plates correspond to meat, and this is the part that we can reduce the most easily: we should eat two or three times less. We must not, however, destroy the entire meat production chain. I advise the consumer to buy French: French farms emit four times less greenhouse gas than the world average, and are of better quality. For the same budget, we therefore have less meat but the best. In France, we have farms that are not the size of Argentinian or American farms, we are on a reasoned size agriculture, rather family.