At the heart of the Biden-Putin exchange, Russia’s intentions in Ukraine

(Washington) During their virtual meeting on Tuesday, Presidents Joe Biden and Vladimir Poutin, with a long history of suspicion and reciprocal mistrust, will address the hot topic of Ukraine, which Russia is accused by Washington of wanting to invade.

At a time when Moscow is massing armed reinforcements on its border with Ukraine, according to Western countries, the possibility of an invasion is hotly debated by experts. Some believe that the threat is mainly intended to serve the Russian president as a means of pressure, in order to obtain a new summit and guarantees that Ukraine does not become a member of NATO.

The two leaders have a long list of additional disagreements, which have accumulated in recent months, ranging from the treatment of dissidents to the presence of hackers on Russian soil, or on mutual accusations of interference.

But the scale of the troop movements of Moscow – which is preparing to launch an offensive in early 2022 involving up to 175,000 troops, according to statements by a senior American official to the Washington Post – has alarmed Washington and its European allies.

Joe Biden on Friday vowed to make it “very, very difficult for Mr. Putin to do what people fear he will do.” The American leader said he was preparing “a set of initiatives”, without giving more details.

During the interview on Tuesday, “President Biden will highlight US concerns over Russian military activities on the border with Ukraine, and reaffirm US support for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity,” said White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki in a statement on Saturday.

The exchange must take place in the evening in Russia (mid-day in Washington).

NATO guarantees

“When we look at the number of troops in the border region, […] what’s going on in cyberspace really worries us, ”Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said on Saturday when asked about Russia. “We are committed to helping Ukraine defend the sovereignty of its territory,” the Minister also reaffirmed.

Many analysts doubt that Moscow, which has refuted any bellicose intent, will actually invade Ukraine, which is sure to spark international condemnation and possibly new sanctions.

But some are less definitive. Vladimir Poutine “is no longer bluffing, he is ready for desperate action. Either NATO provides guarantees, or Russia invades Ukraine, ”said political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya.

According to her, the call between the two leaders could constitute a first step towards a new meeting, desired by the Russian president.

The two men saw each other for the first time in the Kremlin in 2011. Mr. Biden then recounted having said to the Russian leader: “I do not believe that you have a soul”.

They then met in Geneva in 2014, then in the same city in June of that year – Joe Biden then became president. Contacts have continued since, as have tensions.

The Kremlin has made Ukraine’s NATO membership a red line.

Kiev, for its part, categorically refuses to abandon such a project. Joining NATO would mean that the other countries of the alliance, led by the United States, would be required to intervene militarily to defend Ukraine in the event of aggression.

Test

The crisis risks being a difficult test for the American president.

If this interview could make it possible to start a dialogue, one should not wait too much from it, estimates however Fyodor Loukianov, a political analyst close to the Kremlin.

“No concrete result can come out of it,” he told AFP, without predicting a launch of hostilities if the talks fail.

“This is a hysteria fueled by the West,” he said. “Wars start unexpectedly. If it starts, it will start in a different way ”.

But on the contrary for Heather Conley, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, if the Russian president does not obtain satisfaction, then “he will use military means to achieve his political objectives”.

However, he wishes to weaken the ties between Kiev and the Western countries, according to her, because he sees Ukraine as “a kind of aircraft carrier for NATO”.

Ukraine has been torn apart since 2014 by a war that has left more than 13,000 dead between Kiev and pro-Russian separatists in the east of the country. The conflict started after Russia’s annexation of the Crimean Peninsula.