Every Wednesday, our parliamentary correspondent in Ottawa Marie Vastel analyzes a federal political issue to help you better understand it.
Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are preparing to tax even more gas-guzzling vehicles, repeat the federal and Prairie Conservatives. It is not so, retorts the government for a week.
Pierre Poilievre, Jason Kenney and their acolytes seized on a brief recommendation from an advisory committee, taken from the federal government’s 300-page environmental plan, to deploy their last line of attack against the government. Justin Trudeau’s troops better watch out. Offensives like this are likely to multiply on several fronts in the coming months, not only from conservatives, but also from François Legault, who will want to proclaim his nationalism in the election campaign.
Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault was visibly annoyed at having to defend himself, although he never intended to expand the green levy introduced in 2007 by Stephen Harper’s Conservative government and imposed to the most polluting vehicles. “This kind of politics divides,” said the minister, mocking the Conservatives. “A recommendation in a report by an independent committee is not government policy,” did he chirp.
Federal Conservative candidate Pierre Poilievre had just accused him of wanting to “impose thousands of dollars in new taxes on anyone who buys a van”. A reproach shared by his party. Jason Kenney — who will know the result of his vote of confidence in the leadership of the United Conservative Party of Alberta on May 18 — deplored the “punitive tax of the Liberal Party-NDP coalition against workers who buy themselves a van “.
The two men have in common to run for or hope to keep the chiefdom of their formation. And what better way to mobilize their troops than to attack the Liberals, and more particularly Justin Trudeau.
“It’s always a winning strategy in Alberta to attack the federal Liberal government,” says Janet Brown, pollster and political commentator. And it is first by associating his NDP rival, Rachel Notley, with Justin Trudeau that Jason Kenney can hope to save his skin, which seems far from certain. A leadership race to replace him would then undoubtedly give rise to further debate over who would be the Alberta leader best placed to stand up to Ottawa.
Justin Trudeau will therefore not be left alone in Alberta anytime soon. And the race for the leadership of the federal Conservative Party continues until September 10.
A reaffirmed nationalism
At the same time, it will be Prime Minister François Legault’s turn to run for a second term, in the campaign for the October 3 election.
The strategy of the Coalition avenir Québec is unlikely to deviate from that of 2018. That year, the party had demanded full powers in immigration to, in particular, protect French in Quebec. Mr. Legault still not having won his case, it’s a safe bet that he will come back to the charge, especially since the ongoing labor shortage will give him a new handle.
In health, the increase in the federal transfer has still not been granted either. The government’s most recent budget even warned the provinces that “any discussion” on the issue “will be about producing better health care outcomes.”
“Obviously, the nationalist positioning will remain in relation to the federal government,” we admit on the Quebec side. This suggests a few arrows fired against the Trudeau government – which François Legault described outright as a “centralizer” during the federal elections this fall.
“We are not going to embark on an escalation of nationalist proposals”, indicates a Quebec source. However, this person also recognizes that it is never ideal for a government to simply campaign on its record; we can therefore expect new promises in the CAQ’s favorite files. “We will continue in the continuity of the themes of the last four years. »
A lull in Ontario
The only respite that Justin Trudeau should enjoy will come from Ontario. Premier Doug Ford has been on good terms with Ottawa for months. The criticisms that the two premiers sent each other during the 2018 Ontario campaign are a thing of the past.
Doug Ford is leading in the polls, he doesn’t have the fighting personality of Pierre Poilievre or Jason Kenney, and he needs the provincial vote of Justin Trudeau supporters federally.
The PLC garners 38% of support in Ontario, against 34% for the federal Conservatives. But in the greater Toronto area, which brings together nearly 60% of the province’s population, the federal Liberals obtain 43% of the voting intentions, or 10 points more than the CPC, according to an Abacus poll published last week.
“Doug Ford needs to attract centrist voters, federal liberal voters. So he will not campaign against Justin Trudeau, because it would alienate these supports, ”explains a source who has long been a strategist with the Conservatives and close to the Ford camp.
Still, Justin Trudeau will face headwinds from Ottawa, the West and Quebec over the next six months. The bogeyman of a “van tax” may have been futile, but that didn’t stop the Conservatives from waving it around for days. The Liberals would do well to prepare to brave new ones.