The daily The Kyiv Independent talks about the “Miracle on the Oskil River”. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that the ongoing liberation of territories under Russian occupation “saves our people, our hearts, our children and our future”, even promising from the newly reconquered city of Izium on the northern front -east of the conflict, where he made a surprise visit, to continue “to move forward in one direction: straight to victory”.
More than a week after the start of a lightning counter-offensive that saw the spectacular recapture of more than 380 municipalities by the Ukrainians, invaded by Kremlin forces since the start of the war, the retreat of the army in the Kharkiv region seems to announce the beginning of a new phase in the resistance imposed by the former Soviet republic on the Russian aggressor for nearly seven months.
[La libération en cours] save our inhabitants, our hearts, our children and our future, [promettant de continuer] to move in one direction: straight to victory
A change of tone sustained by the surprise and disorganization of the Russian forces in the face of a counter-offensive which, far from being sudden, miraculous or even opportunistic, was above all skilfully and lengthily planned for several months to give these spectacular results. This foreshadows, perhaps, other reconquests to come.
Taken by surprise
We have to go back to last June to shed light on the release in the last days of nearly 8000 km2 of territory hitherto under Russian occupation. At this time, the Ukrainian General Staff began to leak information that its troops were actively preparing an attack in the south, in the Kherson region, to repel the Russian occupiers on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River.
The campaign is one of misinformation that seeks above all to incite Moscow to loosen its grip in the Donbass around the towns of Sievierodonetsk and Lyssytchansk, which have tragically fallen into enemy hands. It will also bear fruit by inducing a stripping of the Russian positions on the northern front, from which the Ukrainian troops have just benefited in the Kharkiv region.
During the same period, kyiv, while strategically amassing some troops in the south, discreetly reinforced its positions on the northeastern front with, among others, its 92e and 93e mechanized brigades. Their presence on the ground near Ukraine’s second-largest city, after they helped prevent Moscow from bringing down kyiv in the early days of the invasion, was not lost on pundits. Westerners. In May, Forbes already mentioned a possible counter-offensive and the recapture of the city of Izium, qualifying “even the thing as a prelude to a disaster for the Russians”. The Kremlin saw nothing.
The surprise was total for the Russian army. The Ukrainians took advantage of a heavily forested and favorable region, as well as information on the times of passage of Russian observation satellites, which they managed to dodge all summer. The rest is known: on September 6, 10 Ukrainian brigades concentrated around the village of Iavirske succeeded in breaking the Russian defense lines, and thus opened the way to Kupyansk for special units to cut an important road from supply of the Russian army which leads to the north of the Donbass. Seven days later, the Ukrainian flag once again flew over several towns in the region, and smiles returned to the faces of thousands of Ukrainians who have been subjected to Russian authorities for months.
Weapons left untouched
“Since the beginning of the conflict, Putin has had difficulty sending troops to the front because of a complex mobilization in a war that is not as supported in Russia as he would have liked”, explains the colonel to retired Pierre St-Cyr, who served as Canadian Defense Attaché in Ukraine during the 2014 conflict. complicated because of sanctions [touchant aussi le matériel et les composants militaires] imposed on Russia by the West. They must now draw on old inventories dating from the 1960s.
Sign of an army taken aback, in leaving their position, the Russians left behind them hundreds of pieces of equipment and military vehicles, including nearly 55% are in perfect working order, according to Icelandic military analyst Ragnar Gudmundsson. Usually, the soldiers, in withdrawing, destroy this material so that it does not fall into the hands of the enemy.
Russian military experts in exile from the Conflict Intelligence Team even mention losses for the Kremlin Forces equivalent to three or four brigades with two combat planes (Su-34 and Su25), nearly 40 assault tanks, a hundred armored vehicles, nine anti-aircraft batteries and, above all, ammunition which the Ukrainians badly need for the continuation of their approach.
Initiated, it, at the end of August, the counter-offensive in the region of Kherson, in the south, also seems to bring kyiv closer to the same outcome as in the north.
“Satellite imagery of known Russian positions at Kyselivka, 15 km northwest of Kherson, shows that all but four Russian vehicles have left forward positions,” summarizes the Institute for the Study of War in its latest report. (ISW). The document speaks of an “apparent withdrawal of Russian troops” which compromises “the Russians’ ability to defend” the northwest of the city and which suggests that “Russian troops in this area perceive an imminent threat to their positions”. .
Spokesperson for the Southern Operational Command of Ukraine, Natalia Houmenyukalso said on Tuesday that Russian forces located along the right bank of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region were trying to negotiate a surrender, within the framework of international laws, reports the ISW.
Chances of peace still “minimal”
Fear has also gripped Crimea, where, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence, Russian authorities have urged their families to flee to Russia, while employees of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation seek to sell hastily returned to their homes on the peninsula to urgently repatriate their families to Russia.
“If the counter-offensive works, Putin will lose his objective of controlling southern Ukraine, from Crimea to Odessa”, says Pierre St-Cyr, and therefore of the coveted coastline to which Russia wants to prevent access to Ukraine to weaken it economically. “Crimea’s security will also be compromised. »
The Kremlin “admitted defeat in Kharkiv Oblast,” the ISW now assesses as “the first” admission of defeat since the invasion of Ukraine began in February. The organization, based in Washington, also specifies that within the Russian executive power, several would now work to prevent Vladimir Putin from assuming responsibility.
According to German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who spoke to him on Tuesday, the Kremlin strongman still does not see the war in Ukraine as a “mistake”, and “there is no suggestion that a new position is emerging”. ’emerge there’.
The chances of peace in Ukraine were also deemed “minimal at this stage” by the UN secretary general, after a telephone conversation with the Russian president. “I have the feeling that we are very far from peace. I would be lying if I said it could happen soon,” António Guterres told a press conference on Wednesday.
With Agence France-Press