After raising expectations for a few days, China on Friday morning unveiled its proposed plan to end the war between Ukraine and Russia. A 12-point document, published on the first anniversary of this violent invasion of Ukrainian territory by the Kremlin Forces, received with caution and skepticism by the international community, after a week marked by contradictory statements from the Chinese regime and by a strategic and diplomatic rapprochement exposed in broad daylight by Beijing and Moscow.
What does the document contain?
A list of pious wishes, a catalog of good intentions: entitled “China’s position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis”, Beijing’s peace plan calls from the outset for respect for “sovereignty, [de] independence and [de] territorial integrity of all countries” and calls on the parties involved to “support Russia and Ukraine to work in the same direction and resume direct dialogue as soon as possible”.
In this document, China believes that “nuclear proliferation must be prevented and nuclear crisis averted”. Beijing also opposes “the research, development and use of chemical and biological weapons by any country under any circumstances” and calls on Russia and Ukraine to “comply strictly to international humanitarian law [et] avoid attacking civilians or civilian buildings”.
Among the 12 points, one seems to directly target NATO, singled out since the start of the conflict by Vladimir Putin to justify his aggression against Ukraine: Beijing is indeed demanding that the conflict get out of its “Cold War mentality”. “The security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs,” it reads. “The legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries must be taken seriously.”
Finally, China believes that to move closer to peace, the West, Russia and Ukraine must seek to “maintain the stability of industrial and supply chains”, but also “oppose the use of ‘world economy as a tool or weapon for political ends’, a formal denunciation of the sanctions against Moscow that Kiev’s allies are still seeking to strengthen.
Can we take this plan seriously?
It is difficult to give much credibility to this document, especially when placed in context.
China’s peace plan was released the day after Beijing abstained from voting on Thursday night’s UN resolution calling on Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. It is the fourth time since the beginning of the conflict that China, a permanent member of the Security Council of the international organization, refuses to support a clear proposal calling for an end to the conflict.
Xi Jinping’s totalitarian regime never condemned the invasion of Ukraine by Russian armed forces and, to this day, has always denounced the sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. His document does not recognize the existence of an aggressor in this conflict, “which is a little strange because it is clear that there is an aggressor”, remarked Friday Jorge Toledo, ambassador of the European Union in China.
Speaking on CNN, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan downplayed the importance of this plan, saying it could have been reduced to the first of its twelve points: “The respect for the sovereignty of all nations”.
“The war could end tomorrow if Russia stops attacking Ukraine and withdraws its forces,” he said.
Chance of the calendars: Friday, the German daily Der Spiegel revealed that negotiations have started between the Russian Ministry of Defense and a Chinese technology company for the supply by next April of armed “prowling drones” and for the transfer of components and know-how in order to allow Russia to produce these weapons locally. The Chinese drones would be similar to the Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones, used for months by Moscow to carry out attacks against civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, according to the German daily.
This week, Washington accused Beijing of considering supplying arms to Russia to support Moscow in its offensive in Ukraine. The Chinese regime has strongly denied these allegations while appearing alongside the strongman of the Kremlin.
“China should do everything in its power to end the war […] and incite Russia to withdraw its troops”, commented Zhanna Leshchynska, charge d’affaires of the Ukrainian embassy in China, underlining a certain bias of the Chinese “peace plan”. “China should talk to both sides, Russia and Ukraine. Because currently, we see that the Chinese side is talking mainly to Russia, but not with Ukraine”.
What is the Chinese regime looking for?
For the past year, China has been placed in a delicate position in the face of Russia’s war of invasion in Ukraine, due to its strong economic and diplomatic ties with Moscow, economic and geostrategic interests which it has sought to defend in Ukraine for more than 10 years and its desire to remain close to the Kremlin to counterpoint Washington’s influence on the international scene.
However, while hoping to give itself the image of a neutral mediator, China finally arrives at nothing more than the affirmation in 12 points of its support for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine. She makes herself the mouthpiece of the Kremlin’s propaganda to justify the aggression.
“At this stage, China’s inability to recognize Russian aggression against Ukraine sends a wake-up call” in several Eurasian countries, including Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan that the head of American diplomacy , Antony Blinken, is preparing to visit next week, summarizes Niva Yau, senior researcher at the Academy of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Kyrgyzstan quoted by the Atlantic Council.
These countries, which have sought support from Beijing in the past to distance themselves from Russian influence, have directly or indirectly supported Ukraine. The Chinese position expressed in this “peace plan”, by recognizing “that Russia had reasons to go to war”, could in the future compromise their sovereignty and participate in this region in a reconstruction of the international order whose Chinese regime could benefit, continues the researcher.
For Bonnie Glaser, China expert at the German Marshall Fund, a US-based think tank, the Chinese plan is “full of contradictions” since it “claims to support Ukraine’s sovereignty” while Beijing has no never “criticized the annexations of Ukrainian territory by Russia”, she said in the pages of the Guardian. Words that pave less than peace, but seek a little more to trace the path of the return, after the conflict, of Chinese state companies to Ukrainian territory to “make profits and promote Chinese influence through commercial and economic means,” she concludes.
With Agence France-Presse