(Toronto) Airlines are adding flights and capacity in hopes passengers will be eager to resume travel after more than 18 long months of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“We’ve had the equivalent of about 11 years of historic growth over the last six months, so the growth has been really huge in a very, very short period of time,” said John Weatherill, chief commercial officer for WestJet.
After an almost complete shutdown of operations, the Calgary-based airline expects to reach about 70% of its pre-COVID capacity by the end of December, fully restore domestic flights by next summer, and to see its international capacity fully return by the end of 2022.
Air Canada, with its larger network and increased service to international destinations and business travel, predicts it will be back to where it was before the pandemic by 2023 or 2024.
“But these dates are very flexible depending on how the situation evolves over the next six months,” said Mark Galardo, senior vice president of network planning and revenue management at Air Canada.
Future waves of COVID could upend those plans, although airlines expect the vaccination campaign to help tackle any new public health challenges.
“We are confident that the worst is behind us,” he said in an interview.
According to Mr. Galardo, the COVID-19 pandemic has wiped out a decade of growth.
Passenger demand in North America fell 79% in January 2021 from January 2019 with a seating capacity of 60.5%, according to the International Air Transport Association, which represents the airlines.
The situation has improved, but the number of scheduled domestic flights for the fourth quarter is still down 40% and capacity is almost 25% less than it was before the pandemic, according to the aeronautical data company. Cirium.
Easing travel restrictions and increasing vaccination rates have helped demand improve, but the future of the aviation industry “remains more uncertain than it has been in decades Says a Deloitte report calling for reform of the Canadian aviation sector.
“The pandemic has completely changed the future of the industry,” the report said, noting that it could take up to five years for air traffic in North America to return to pre-pandemic levels.
Garth Lund, commercial director of carrier Flair, said the recovery so far has been patchy. Low-cost airlines like Flair that are expanding their fleets will see a much faster recovery as these carriers gain market share globally from the pre-pandemic situation.
This is because they mainly serve leisure travel which has seen demand turned back. They also parked fewer of their planes than traditional carriers, were able to acquire newer planes, and used the pandemic to secure better conditions at airports, recruit crews and catapult their growth.
“The last 18 months or so, or even the last six months, has really been a once in a lifetime opportunity to really catalyze this growth,” said Lund.
For the industry as a whole, the vaccination of passengers and employees is essential.
“I think it helps people travel with confidence,” added Charles Duncan, president of Swoop, WestJet’s low-cost carrier.
However, business travel – which is Air Canada’s bread and butter and helps offset falling leisure fares – could face a longer return to normal, as many large companies have postponed the shift. reopening of their offices.
Mr Galardo said that until business recovers he will bet even more on the leisure market which has been more resilient and is partly supported by multicultural communities traveling to visit families and loved ones around the world. whole.
WestJet’s Weatherill believes uncertainty surrounding travel restrictions and testing requirements for COVID-19 is contributing to passengers’ reluctance to purchase tickets.
The tests are expensive, especially the PCR test required to re-enter Canada. As vaccines become available for children as young as five, the industry wants testing, which it sees as the “last major logistical and economic hurdle to recovery”, to end in 2022.
“It’s also unnecessary in our opinion, and it’s in a world where indeed everyone who travels is doubly vaccinated,” Weatherill said.
Canadian carriers hope that an updated US air travel policy, allowing vaccinated travelers to rely only on rapid tests instead of PCR tests or use self-test kits, will be adopted. by Canada.
“We hope that Canada will finally see the light [et mettra fin à l’exigence de PCR] Said Robert Kokonis, president of air transport consultancy AirTrav.
“Once we do that, I see demand improving further during the advance booking season, both for winter and summer. ”
The imminent reopening of the U.S. border to Canadian travelers on November 8 will also help boost passenger confidence, as there was confusion with air travel authorization while the land border was closed, Mr. Lund.
“Adding more consistency between the two will just help people have that confidence to fly south. ”
On the other hand, a 120% increase in fuel costs over the past year, to their highest level since 2014, poses a challenge for all airlines, which are loath to impose fuel surcharges.
“We haven’t had a fuel surcharge at WestJet since 2008,” said Duncan.
“We have no intention of reintroducing a fuel surcharge and will work diligently to manage this growing expense while keeping fares low for Canadians, as we have always done for the past 13 years. ”