This text is part of the special Real Estate section
Are you thinking of buying or selling a property in 2024? The pandemic years have damaged the country’s real estate market, and things are not about to calm down, according to experts on the issue. What to expect for the coming year? Peek into the crystal ball of the home.
“In 2024, there will only be six years left to meet the need for nearly a million housing units in Quebec,” recalls Marc Lefrançois, real estate broker at Royal LePage, referring to the calculations of the Canadian Society of Housing. ‘mortgages and lomanagement (CMHC). For him, this deficit will have a major effect on the province’s real estate market in the coming years. Same story from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA): “The faster we increase inventory, the sooner we will reach a balanced situation between supply and demand and a reduction in pressure on price,” confirms Pierre Leduc, media relations manager.
This finding will put sellers in an advantageous position in 2024 — unless they are looking for a new home themselves. “When we sell our house, we find ourselves in the same situation as everyone else,” notes Pierre Leduc. We have difficulty finding a house that meets our needs. »
All the same, there is a little hope on the horizon for families looking for more housing: the aging population. “Many baby boomers did not move during the pandemic because they wanted to maintain their space,” observes Mr. Lefrançois. It was less popular to go to a condo. Now that it’s behind us, there could be a return in registration numbers. »
Declining interest
The two experts also agree on the imminent arrival of a reduction in interest rates, expected for the summer, which will lead to an increase in the number of potential buyers – and rising prices. “Buyers are slowly returning to the market,” notes the real estate broker. The phenomenon will increase as the rate decrease approaches. » His colleague from the ACI also notes that a high number of buyers have chosen a variable rate mortgage in recent months, betting on an upcoming reduction in the key rate. “Others say that if there is a drop, it won’t be that big, so they might as well take a chance and enter the market. »
For now, these factors combined give buyers a slight advantage. “There are still properties that can be negotiated well because they have been listed for a long time,” notes Marc Lefrançois. But that will change quickly in 2024. I have already seen the reappearance of multiple offers. We no longer saw that at all in 2023! » The ACI observes the same phenomenon in Toronto, the Queen City serving as a barometer for the entire country.
In short: “We have not at all returned to the market that existed before the pandemic,” explains Pierre Leduc. Not at the level of affordability nor at the level of a balanced market. » Under the circumstances, there is little chance that this balance will be achieved in the coming years.
No respite for buyers
What will be the effect of these pressures on the wider housing world? “There are a lot of potential buyers in the rental market,” notes the ACI representative. The lack of offers does not allow them to exit the market, which puts pressure on rents. » With the high cost of living that consumers have endured in recent years, these same tenants may have to wait longer to enter the real estate market. “Some potential buyers will put their decision on hold to accumulate a better down payment, finish paying off the car or zero out the credit card before getting started. »
Buyers who decide to take the plunge will also have to make sacrifices, believes Marc Lefrançois. “You will have to put an end to your dream neighborhood, find another type of accommodation, be creative. Younger people will have to put a lot more money down on their property than when I was their age. »
The 2024 real estate market will be tough for those looking for a property. “If I were a buyer, I would hurry,” advises Marc Lefrançois. For sellers, his recommendation is to wait: “When a seller comes to see me now, I tell them to wait until the beginning of April before putting them on the market. » One thing is clear: the lull of recent months is about to end.
This content was produced by the Special Publications team at Duty, relating to marketing. The writing of the Duty did not take part.