after two years of conflict, Russia between support and weariness

In Russia, after two years of invasion of Ukraine, the inhabitants seem disillusioned and increasingly disinterested in politics. But the majority of the population continues to support the offensive.

After two years of war, the Ukrainians appear determined but also tired by this war of attrition. In Russia, the situation is obviously not comparable: apart from a few border areas with Ukraine, the territory is not under threat of bombing. And most Russians admit, their lives have not been fundamentally turned upside down. “Prices may have gone up, but our lives haven’t changed. I’m waiting for this to end, it’s going to take time”said a Russian.

But we can also say that many Russians are tired of this lasting war. This is obviously expressed in a more discreet or more ambiguous way than in Ukraine. Because in Russia, the law strictly prohibits contesting the “special military operation”, as the Kremlin calls it, in any way whatsoever. Franceinfo held out its microphone in the streets of Moscow, taking care to guarantee anonymity to the Russians interviewed.

“We are at an impasse”

Officially, a majority of residents continue to support the army. “I would like it to end quickly and with a victory, and nothing else. If, as we are told on television, (the Ukrainians) have already tried to negotiate but deceived us, then there is no than the form”, supports this man with the go-to-war speech. But the majority of Russians say it: they want this war to end, without really believing in it. “Yes we are waiting, but when will it end? asks a Muscovite. Apart from horror, what can we expect? We are at an impasse now, it’s total despair.”

This feeling of fatigue, fed up or weariness, can be felt and found, for example, in the polls of the last independent institute in Russia. The Levada Institute observes that the longer the war lasts, the greater the proportion of Russians who are in favor of opening negotiations. More than half of those surveyed want talks today, as a way of saying that this conflict must end. This weariness is also felt in the consumption of antidepressants, which has increased. “In such a situation, citizens cannot do much. Everyone around me is depressed and most do not support the war,” assures a Russian.

Polls with contested results

Levada Institute polls also say that three-quarters of Russians believe their army will ultimately be victorious in this conflict, and that a very large majority of Russians support the government. These results are sometimes contested by some opinion specialists who say that the polls cannot be taken into consideration in Russia, given the repression and censorship. The Kremlin’s determination is also reflected in politicians’ speeches and in the state budget forecasts for 2025, which still provides for very high military spending.

February 24, 2024 marks the entry into the third year of conflict, but perhaps not the last. According to these same polls, 50% of Russians think that the war will last more than a year. In fact, many Russians are no longer informed and television audiences are declining. They look elsewhere, neither really supporting nor really opposing. This lack of interest will perhaps have an effect on participation in the presidential election, scheduled in three weeks. This is the Kremlin’s only fear: that the mobilization will be weak. Because when Russians are asked a question that revolves more or less around the war, many respond: “I’m not interested in politics.”