(Tbilisi, Georgia) First, in Tbilisi, as elsewhere, no one could imagine so much incompetence on the part of the Russian army and Vladimir Putin’s secret services. We refused the pleasure of imagining Russia losing control, the ancient empire that subjugated Georgia for a few centuries and still occupies two of its regions.
“Let’s see! a Georgian friend asks me. All this history must be orchestrated! It’s comedy, it’s not possible. Putin hides his cards. While, on the airwaves of Radio-Canada, we were already speculating on the consequences of a descent into hell, a Russian journalist in exile here threw at me: “Stop fantasizing, there won’t be any. “No, no,” continued the Georgian, “impossible to shake the Kremlin.” Doesn’t Putin have a Praetorian Guard and the FSB [services spéciaux russes] ? Yevgeny Prigojine will be executed. »
Indeed, doesn’t Russia, the largest country in the world, have the second largest army on the planet? Isn’t it the heiress of the Soviet Union, dominated during its heyday by a Georgian, Joseph Stalin, who knew how to perfect his secret police? Haven’t the tentacles of the FSB been sinking into the flesh of Russian daily life for 20 years? Doesn’t he see everything? Doesn’t he know everything? Barely a month ago, weren’t we talking about the return of the repression of the Soviet years?
And then, everything became possible. They were glued to their smart phones watching, in disbelief, Vladimir Putin’s great Russia being kicked in the ass by a warlord worthy of a country in disarray.
This adventurer, ex-prisoner, the one who was called “Vladimir Putin’s cook”, turned his militia of thousands of men against the Kremlin. He invested effortlessly in the nerve center of the Russian forces in Rostov-on-the-Don. Prigozhin, underestimated by many, showed surprising power and influence.
As Prigozhin’s mercenaries advanced on Moscow, the President of Georgia, Salome Zurabishvili, felt the need to send a reassuring message to the population: “We are monitoring the situation. Our border is well guarded in case of other migratory waves. There are already 50,000 to 70,000 Russian refugees here since the start of the war in Ukraine.
And then they heard that the Belarusian leader, Alexander Lukashenko (and not Putin or the Kremlin), had resolved the crisis and ended the adventure after 24 hours of madness. Prigozhin then ordered his troops to pack up to avoid “a bloodbath”. The videos showed passers-by cheering for his men, giving them water and food.
In Georgia, as in Quebec, we have seen that Putin did not have the undisputed support he had led people to believe. The possibility of a popular uprising was no longer remote. So we started reminiscing about the early school history lesson on the Civil War and the Russian Revolution, just in case…
Georgians saw Vladimir Putin first speak of a stab in the back and betrayal and later drop all charges against this former ally. Yes, it looks like a warlike adventure in Mali or Burkina Faso of some rebel groups, countries where Wagner has been working for years.
The Kremlin has never been so fragile since the collapse of the USSR. Vladimir Putin suddenly loses his aura of untouchable, ultimate arbiter, ruthless and Machiavellian judoka. His secret police are ridiculed. His army more dysfunctional than ever. In full Ukrainian counter-offensive, it seems very bad.
In short, the Tsar is naked. Viewed from Georgia, this opens up all sorts of possibilities.
At the end of the day on Saturday, Dalila sent me: “We hope that Russia will soon collapse! with the flags of the European Union, Georgia and Ukraine attached to the message.
Since the start of the war, the Georgian government had bet not to hit the Kremlin. He played with him, he helped him to evade the sanctions, opened his borders to him to the great displeasure of his humiliated inhabitants, very sympathetic to Ukraine.
The risk was well thought out and it greatly benefited the power in place. The Kremlin’s now weakened authority could cause the government to recalculate, argues Shota Kakabadze, an analyst at the Georgian Institute of Politics.
“It is still early to move forward, but a fragile and weak Russia would necessarily push Georgia to distance itself from it and to reconnect without complex with the West, Europe and NATO. This is a hope cherished by Georgians.
But an unstable Russia can also become a threat. It evokes migratory flows, a loss of control of illegal trade. Mr. Kakabadze is thinking of arms trafficking, among other things. It also means the risk of a small spark exploding the powder keg of the North Caucasus on the other side of the border. It is home to dozens of ethnic minorities, including Chechnya, which has experienced two wars in 30 years. Its leader Ramzan Kadyrov, another bloodthirsty and unpredictable warlord, absolutely sided with Putin on Saturday.
A weak and fragile Russia would also awaken the Georgian desire to take back South Ossetia and Abkhazia, places of bloody wars, taken by the old empire, which we compare here to Donbass and Crimea.
In short, seen from here, a crumbling Russia would revive the most beautiful hopes, but fear bloody scenarios. A great game to follow, undoubtedly.