The author is a former conservative strategist. He was a political adviser in the Harper government as well as in the opposition.
The Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, is in Seoul for his first official visit in almost eight years in power to mark sixty years of diplomatic relations. US President Joe Biden made his first visit to South Korea in May 2022, sixteen months after taking office. On Friday, they will both be in Japan for the G7 summit in Hiroshima. The choice of this city is a symbol for the world.
In Hiroshima, talks will focus on supporting Ukraine and standing up to Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will participate virtually. The relationship with China will also be a crucial element of the discussions.
Last April, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, surprised on his return from China by speaking openly of a European “strategic autonomy” to be built, believing that the status of “followers” of American policies with China or Taiwan could not lead to “a Chinese overreaction”. It will be interesting to see if President Macron goes back on his words in the final G7 communiqué.
In Seoul, it was more about trade, the export of Canadian liquefied natural gas to Asia and critical minerals, among others. Yes, Canada has them, but they still have to be exploited and exported, which is far from certain.
Prime Minister Trudeau has touted the increased trade between Canada and South Korea thanks to the free trade agreement concluded and implemented by Stephen Harper in record time. The negotiations were concluded in March 2014, the agreement signed in September 2014 to enter into force in January 2015.
The Canadian map
At the time, negotiations between Canada and South Korea had been at an impasse since 2008. The year before, Seoul had signed a free trade agreement with the United States. South Korea was therefore in no rush to make a deal or even concede anything to Canada. In the game of trade negotiations, the first to conclude always has the advantage.
But the Harper government did not want our exports to pay the price for the privileged access negotiated by Washington. The military and diplomatic relationship between the United States and South Korea had played a major role in these trade negotiations. Even though our soldiers participated in the Korean War from 1950 to 1953, Canada was no match for it.
The trigger that brought Seoul back to the negotiating table was the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations. Its neighbor, Japan, wanted to join the PTP. South Korea did not want him to enjoy such privileged access to North America alone.
However, Canada had joined the TPP on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Los Gabos in June 2012, and had participated in its first round of negotiations in October 2012. Its place at the table was a good card to play, Japan and South Korea needing approval from existing members to join.
Canada had been negotiating a free trade agreement with Japan since March 2012. However, Japan’s priority soon became the TPP. However, Japan did not want to give Canada the same treatment as that granted to the United States. His argument was that our economies are not the same size.
For the Harper government, it was inconceivable that the United States would have better access to Japan, at the risk of unbalancing the entire automotive production chain. We see it today with the fight for the electric vehicle market. Hyundai invested $5 billion for a plant in Georgia while Canada lured Volkswagen home at high prices. Stellentis and LG now want to renegotiate, given the amounts received by the German manufacturer for an investment in Windsor.
After tough negotiations with Minister Akira Amari, Japan agreed to Canadian demands on the sidelines of an Asia-Pacific forum in April 2013. Canada granted, Japan officially joined the TPP in May 2013.
The TPP agreement, which included the United States (at the time), was signed in the midst of the 2015 election campaign. South Korea did not join the TPP, but Canada has since been able to count on a bilateral free trade agreement thanks to this geopolitics.
A tarnished image
All this to say that Japan and South Korea are not naive about China’s intentions at the G7. Each in turn, they are paying the price for their geopolitics. Whether through direct economic retaliation from China, missile launches from North Korea, or military demonstrations in the Sea of Japan.
Japan has been investing heavily in its military since its policy change under former Prime Minister Abe, with a target of 2% of its GDP, and a budget of $320 billion. However, Japan continues to source hydrocarbons from Russia, out of necessity, despite international sanctions.
The Trudeau government finally expelled the Chinese diplomat from the Toronto consulate, who was trying to intimidate Conservative MP Michael Chong and his family. It was unthinkable for Justin Trudeau to appear before the G7 without having reacted to the actions of the Beijing regime.
We will remember that in May 2016, Justin Trudeau was in Japan to participate in the same G7 summit. He had taken advantage of his trip to take a day off and celebrate his wedding anniversary in a ryokan, a traditional Japanese inn with hot baths. It had been seen as a sign of modernism for an acclaimed Prime Minister Trudeau at the time.
He had specified that this day was at his expense. Today, he refuses to say whether he paid the cost of his stay in a villa in Jamaica last Christmas. The refreshing image of Justin Trudeau in 2016 is now tarnished. His fall took Canada with him. A survey by the firm Angus Reid published Tuesday indicates that the good or very good reputation of Canada abroad has fallen by 33 points since 2018, according to our fellow citizens, to reach 51% today.