what assessment for Recep Tayyip Erdogan after twenty years in power?

In twenty years, the face of Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the head of Turkey has changed a lot. At its beginnings in 2003, it promised a new democratic breath. Over the course of his mandates as Prime Minister (from 2003 to 2014), then as President (since 2014), the Turkish conservative leader has finally made an authoritarian turn. The rule of law has declined and protest movements have been violently repressed.

Will Erdogan’s “reign” stop there? Turkish voters are called to the polls on Sunday, May 14, for the first round of the presidential election. And the polls give his main opponent, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, in the lead in the first round with 49% of the vote, according to the Politico site, which gathered the results of several opinion polls.

This election takes place in a Turkey hit by a serious economic crisis and still bruised by the earthquake of February 6th. What is Erdogan’s responsibility in the situation in the country? What consequences on the vote of the Turks? Franceinfo takes stock of the policy pursued for twenty years by the leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP).

A dying Turkish economy

Prices in Türkiye have simply exploded in recent years. According to official figures, inflation was around 50% year on year in March, after having reached 85% in October 2022. These figures could be underestimated, the independent Turkish research group on inflation (Enag) evoking inflation of 112% over the same period. These rates contrast with those that Turkey has been accustomed to for much of the Erdogan era: between 2004 and 2016, annual inflation averaged 8.2%, according to World Bank data. Consequence of this galloping inflation: the Turkish lira collapsed against the dollar. Between 2013 and 2022, its value has fallen by around 90%. In April, the currency fell to almost 20 pounds to the dollar, its lowest level ever.

“Certainly, there is an international crisis and the rise in the price of hydrocarbons is weighing on Turkey, which has none”says Didier Billion, country specialist and deputy director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris). “But Erdogan is also responsible for this situation.” In response to inflation, the Turkish head of state persists in lowering the key rates of the Turkish Central Bank, a measure “contrary to those that should have been taken”he judges, like many economists.

“Erdogan wanted to pose as chief economist. He did not want to listen to the specialists, including those around him.”

Didier Billion, Turkey specialist

at franceinfo

Result: the Turkish population is hit hard by rising prices, especially food. “To live, you need several jobs. (…) My 24 hours are completely occupied by work”, said for example Ali, 60, met in December by franceinfo. The minimum wage has indeed been raised several times – a third time in December – “but the measures have not made it possible to regulate this impoverishment of the populationunderlines the deputy director of Iris. Those who voted for Erdogan then for economic reasons are not going to do so this time, because they blame him for the deterioration of their daily lives.”

Erdogan’s economic policy has at least had the effect of supporting the country’s GDP growth, which reached 11.6% in 2021 and exceeded 5% in 2022.

A progressive authoritarian drift

When the leader of the AKP became Prime Minister in 2003, he embarked on a major series of reforms with a very specific goal: membership of the European Union, with which negotiations began in 2005. “Erdogan then seeks to democratize the countryrecalls Jana Jabbour, political scientist specializing in Turkey and teacher at Science Po. It reduces the prerogatives of the army, extends fundamental freedoms, grants cultural rights to the Kurds…” But from the beginning of the 2010s, “the Turkish leader realizes that all these reforms have failed to convince the EU”she explains.

“From there, there is a decline in the rule of law because there is no longer any motivation to join the EU.”

Jana Jabbour, political scientist

at franceinfo

Erdogan then took a radical turn. After making sure to maintain the principle of secularism, one of the foundations of the Turkish Republic since the beginning of the 20th century, he finally puts religion back at the center of his political project and advocates a “pious and moral society”. Under his orders, the police violently repress any form of protest. Women’s rights are called into question and freedom of the press is reduced to a trickle.

Over the mandates, the Kurdish minority becomes the target of the executive. The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), the country’s third force, comes under Erdogan’s sights for its supposed links with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), considered a terrorist formation by a large part of the States. This dialectic is accentuated when Kurds start to take up arms in Syria, recalls Jana Jabbour: “The AKP has started to see them again as enemies from inside and outside who want to harm Turkey.”

This repression of the Kurds and any protest movement is reinforced a little more after the failed coup of 2016. “Erdogan will go wild and cast a wide net. Thousands of people will be arrested even though they have nothing to do with the putsch”, points out Didier Billion. A year later, the Head of State established a presidential regime, voted by referendum with a small majority (51.6%). The post of Prime Minister is abolished and all its prerogatives are transferred to the President. A penknife blow to the principle of the separation of powers: the president can now appoint or dismiss ministers, judges and govern by decree within the broad sphere of his powers.

A key player on the international scene

“Today, everyone needs Turkey”, summarizes Jana Jabbour about the place of Ankara on the international scene. In the context of the war in Ukraine, Erdogan is positioning himself as a crucial mediator between the two parties. Her intervention in the Ukrainian cereals file, which helped to revive exports, reinforced this position, according to the political scientist: “Turkey maintains its economic relations with Moscow, while financing the war effort of Volodymyr Zelensky. It is a very ambiguous policy which in the long term will pay off.” This proximity to Russia does not prevent it from being an influential member within NATO or from seeking to rise as a regional power in the Middle East.

“The major success of the AKP on the diplomatic scene is to have managed to make the splits between antagonistic actors.”

Jana Jabbour, political scientist

at franceinfo

What about Europe? Negotiations for Turkey’s accession have fizzled out and relations are strained with the Twenty-Seven. But the migration crisis forces the EU to cooperate with Erdogan. In 2016, Ankara and Brussels concluded a pact: in return for three billion euros, Turkey undertakes to receive migrants who have entered Greece whose asylum request has been refused. “Contrary to Western countries, which see other states either as friends or as enemies, Turkey has understood that international relations make it possible to create transactional relations above all”analyzes Jana Jabbour.

Critics after the devastating earthquake

The deadly earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria on February 6 and killed more than 50,000 people will mark Erdogan’s term in office. Late arrival of relief, censorship on social networks… The Turkish president has been criticized by part of the population for his handling of the disaster.

The Turks mostly point finger his laissez-faire in the construction of buildings that did not meet the standards for years. “Hundreds of building permits have been given under somewhat opaque conditions”, recalls the deputy director of Iris. Real estate developers used unsuitable materials at the time and did not take into account the seismic risks.

“All of this is the product of a system based on immediate profit, on liberalism, of which Erdogan is the herald.”

Didier Billion, Turkey specialist

at franceinfo

Nevertheless, “opinion polls show that the electoral impact of the earthquake is rather weak in the affected regions”, underlines the Turkish political scientist Ahmet Insel, interviewed by franceinfo. Observers struggle to explain this trend, but Ahmet Insel offers an explanation: “The votes are certainly more ideological than based on government practices.”