(Charlottetown) With eight days to go, the Green Party of Prince Edward Island hopes to keep its gains from the previous election, but some experts predict that it could lose seats in the Legislative Assembly.
Hannah Bell, a Green MP who decided not to run again in 2023, laments that her party was not ready to embark on the campaign trail.
Even though Conservative Leader Dennis King called the election six months ahead of the legislated date, Mr.me Bell maintains that all political parties knew they would take place in 2023. According to her, her party did not do any groundwork or even plan a campaign, which could cost her seats on April 3.
“As I’ve said internally and externally, I believe the Green Party has missed a great chance to rekindle its election momentum early. We must start preparing for the next election as soon as the election campaign is over. And in retrospect, the Greens have had problems continuing their momentum from 2019.”
In 2019, they won eight seats, becoming the first green party to form the official opposition in North America.
The Conservatives were able to form a minority government, the first since the 19e century. This has given Peter Bevan-Baker’s Greens a greater opportunity to promote measures and policies than opposition parties of the past.
However, the Conservatives were able to gain a majority after winning a by-election in 2020.
And the greens seem to be trampling. At the start of the campaign, the polls placed them very far behind the Conservatives. For example, they were behind by 27 percentage points, according to a Narrative Research poll.
They have had so much difficulty attracting new candidates that they are not presenting any in two ridings.
“I wouldn’t pretend that I’m not disappointed. But I can tell you it’s not for lack of trying,” said Green Party Leader Peter Bevan-Baker.
Several supporters have expressed a desire to be candidates over the past four years, but they have given up because of the early announcement of the elections, he explains. They didn’t want to give up everything all at once.
Don Desserud, a political scientist at the University of Prince Edward Island, believes the Green Party’s breakthrough four years ago was largely due to the disaffection of Liberal voters who wanted change after 12 years of Liberal government.
According to him, the next election will show whether the results of 2019 were a simple accident. He points out that some of those voters like the policies proposed by the Greens.
“But when I study the results of the polls, I don’t see it,” he admits. I see the greens are back as before. »
The Liberals, who had only four members at the dissolution of the Legislative Assembly, are slightly behind the Greens. They too failed to present candidates in all the counties, a first since 1919.
Liberal leader Sharon Cameron has been careful to target the Green Party since the start of the campaign in order to woo her former electorate. She even chose to run in the same riding as Mr. Bevan-Baker, breaking the tradition that a leader does not face another leader in the same riding.
Historian Ed MacDonald says the old binary political system was buried deep in the minds of older generations. For many, political allegiance is part of the family heritage. He believes that the Greens can maintain their gains and even attract new voters due to demographic changes on Prince Edward Island.
“The electoral landscape of [la province] has changed and continues to do so, he says. Many immigrants came to settle on Prince Edward Island, many people living in other parts of Canada as well. People are changing allegiance more than ever, especially in urban areas. »