Global oil demand has recovered and even exceeded pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2022, according to figures published on Tuesday by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which forecasts further growth in demand in 2023 driven by the China.
As climate change accelerates, the consumption of fossil fuels responsible for global warming is not weakening, on the contrary: in the last quarter of 2022, the global demand for oil estimated by the cartel crossed the bar of 100 million barrels per day. , at 101.17 million barrels per day, a figure higher than the average demand estimated by OPEC for 2019 at 99.76 mb/d.
Energy analyst firm Rystad estimated last week that carbon emissions from fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) would continue to rise until around 2025, before starting to fall thereafter.
Oil demand had collapsed with the pandemic, to 90.98 mb/d in 2020, before rising to 97.01 mb/d in 2021 then to 99.55 mb/d in 2022, sustained last year by “solid economic activity in OECD and non-OECD countries, apart from China”.
For this year, OPEC has slightly revised its forecast upwards and is now counting on growth over one year of 2.32 million barrels per day to 101.87 million mb/d. This corresponds to 0.1 mb/d more compared to the last point in January.
Most of the growth will in fact come from non-OECD countries where oil demand is expected to increase by 2 mb/d and “exceed pre-pandemic levels for the second consecutive year”, driven by the China, Asia and the Middle East, according to OPEC.
In China, “annual oil needs declined last year”, notes the cartel, but “the end of the zero COVID policy in December should support oil demand in 2023”, according to the cartel.
In developed OECD countries, growth in demand should slow down, with an increase of around 0.4 mb/d in 2023 (after +1.3 mb/d in 2022) and we will be “just below pre-pandemic levels in absolute volumes,” according to OPEC.
“OECD countries in America should drive growth, while demand from OECD countries in Europe and Asia Pacific should stagnate,” explains OPEC.