Every Wednesday, our parliamentary correspondent in Ottawa Marie Vastel analyzes a federal political issue to help you better understand it.
The trucking convoy crusade has caused a lot of headaches for Erin O’Toole, who is visibly about to lose his post as leader of the Conservative Party. But the liberal response to these demonstrators who oppose health rules at all costs is not without risk for Justin Trudeau either. Even within his team, some are worried that he seems to ignore the very real weariness of a large part of the population, who are fed up with confinements without being part of the conspirators denounced by the Prime Minister.
Everyone has chosen their side, the day after the excesses observed in downtown Ottawa. Erin O’Toole defended the right to demonstrate and condemned “a small minority of extremists”. “But that doesn’t stop me from listening to Canadians who are afraid, who are worried, who are concerned,” he said. Except that for the troops of the Conservative leader, who refused a week earlier to support the convoy of truckers, this new change of course was too much.
Mr. O’Toole will therefore face a vote of confidence when his caucus meets on Wednesday. And everything indicates that he will not come out unscathed, according to internal sources. He risks being ousted by a majority of his deputies or resigning to avoid humiliation. “He speaks out of both sides of his mouth in his public statements. And the protest was just the latest example on the list,” observes political scientist Emmett Macfarlane of the University of Waterloo.
Justin Trudeau, on the other hand, strongly denounced the demonstrators of the trucking convoy, hammering that his government would not give in and would not be “intimidated”. The Prime Minister chose on Monday to address “the millions of Canadians who are making responsible choices”.
Professor Macfarlane sees no great political risk in his case. “The majority of Canadians who are fed up with the pandemic are angry with the very people Mr. Trudeau criticized. So I’m not convinced that exposing the problem for what it is is divisive or dangerous. »
Vaccinated and “tanned”
But Liberal MPs hear loud and clear the popular exasperation on the ground and would like to see their leader take note and reach out to exasperated citizens, whether or not they are vaccinated (as François Legault did on Tuesday , citing this reason for abandoning the idea of taxing the unvaccinated).
A survey by the Angus Reid Institute revealed on Monday that 54% of Canadians believe it is time to relax health measures and let the population manage individual risk by learning to live with the virus.
The behavior of protesters in Ottawa is unacceptable to all. But some liberals note that this should not rule out any discussion with the rest of the disgruntled citizens.
“There are people who are fed up, who are for vaccination, but who believe that after two years of the pandemic, the measures still in place are too severe. And, with these, we must have a dialogue and not a dialogue of the deaf, ”argues a deputy, who prefers to speak anonymously so as not to suffer reprisals.
Another elected official retorts that the prime minister has often claimed to understand and share popular fatigue. But faced with the actions of some protesters in Ottawa, Mr. Trudeau simply cannot “demonstrate the slightest openness”.
Other Liberals, however, are also concerned about the tone adopted by their leader on this file. Some ministers, like Jean-Yves Duclos and Mark Holland, have also shown more restraint.
Political commentators saw Justin Trudeau’s speech as a parallel to the “pitiful” people denounced by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
“This kind of generalization is dangerous,” said University of Central Florida political science professor John Hanley. “When people who aren’t necessarily part of that group see it denigrated, or they feel like they’re being associated with it to be disrespectful to them, it’s likely to exacerbate things from a human point of view. Politics. »
Professor Hanley advises Canadian politicians to take care to “present this group in a way that makes sure it’s clear that it’s not inclusive, without over-generalizing”.
In the United States, the polarization of society that began a few years ago has not faded. “These people don’t go away,” says national security expert and Carleton University professor Stephanie Carvin. “If these people don’t identify with the political system, they look for other options. »
Those who join the convoy of truckers, organized in particular by people associated with the far right, now have a cause that galvanizes them and are excited to have managed to organize such a large event and raise more than eight million of dollars. “In the short and medium terms, we can conclude that this movement is rooted,” predicts Professor Carvin. “Its future will depend on the duration of the pandemic and the measures denounced, then on the potential emergence of another file likely to mobilize Canadians as much. »
The political debates of the last few days concerning the interminable demonstration in progress in the federal capital lead to believe that this movement will continue to be used for political ends on one side or the other. This will do nothing to ease the tensions within the federal parties, nor the citizens, who are increasingly exasperated.