In Taiwan, authorities have accused China of faking an invasion of the island, as Chinese military planes fly over the island state daily.
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Since US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, China has repeatedly retaliated. For Guillaume Lavoie, associate member of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, this military deployment sends several diplomatic messages.
“It’s the kind of retaliation we could expect. We are very much into symbols. First, to mark the dissatisfaction of Pelosi’s visit to emphasize that, for China, there is only one China and Taiwan is a rebel province. (…) The more important the military exercises are, the more it sets the table for if another country wanted to recognize Taiwan more”, he analyzed.
Chinese President Xi Jinping would also like to obtain a third term.
“There is no one else, after Mao, who has served a third term. So this third term is symbolic and special. President Xi Jinping will probably become the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao, which is no small feat. It is not unthinkable that he is there for life. So he wants to leave an important mark, ”believes the expert.
Mr. Lavoie recalls that the situation in Taiwan is complex, especially with regard to its recognition as an independent territory.
“I don’t think it was Taiwan that asked for Pelosi to come. The situation in Taiwan is very complex. (…)Taiwan’s recognition policy is an artistic blur and it is maintained like that. What Pelosi did is kick the hive big. Some Americans say that now is the time to prevent China, which is more powerful than 25 years ago, from having ambitions to invade Taiwan,” he explained.
For Guillaume Lavoie, the conflict between China and Taiwan must cool down.
“We are in a situation where Joe Biden needs China’s collaboration in the conflict in Ukraine to prevent it from being an ally of Russia, who are very close,” he thinks.