World | The hunger crisis

Almost everywhere, the cost of the grocery basket has exploded. In some twenty countries, the food situation is worsening and reviving the specter of famine. The war in Ukraine is singled out. But it is far from being the only cause. Explanations of a crisis and possible solutions.

Janie Gosselin
The Press

Droughts, floods, armed conflicts, problems linked to the pandemic: the elements were already in place to make 2022 a record year for food insecurity in the world. The war in Ukraine has aggravated the situation. For 50 million people, the reality is particularly stark, according to the UN.

A dangerous spiral

“If we try to take on the big causes, we often talk about the cocktail of the three Cs”, summarizes Céline Füri, humanitarian coordinator of Oxfam-Québec, that is to say climate change, conflicts and COVID-19. .

Somalia, Ethiopia and South Sudan are particularly affected by climate change. The rainy season remained dry. Cattle starved to death, skin stuck to bone. Deprived of their means of subsistence, herders are struggling to feed themselves.

Water isn’t always miraculous either. China was apprehending one of its worst wheat harvests this year as torrential rains reduced the window of time to plant seeds.

wars

In addition to climate change, conflicts are responsible for part of the food insecurity, as in Yemen, where the humanitarian situation is particularly catastrophic due to the war. In some regions of the world, violence makes access to food perilous.

But the war that particularly shook the planet in 2022 is the Russian invasion of Ukraine, since the latter is, along with Russia, a major grain exporter. The two countries signed agreements on Friday that open the door to the resumption of exports of millions of Ukrainian cereals and Russian cereals and fertilizers, promising a solution for many populations. The Russian strikes carried out on Saturday against the port city of Odessa, however, cast “serious doubt on the credibility of Russia’s commitment to the agreement”, according to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Ukraine and Russia produce about a third of the wheat traded on world markets, according to the International Food Policy Research Institute. In Africa and the Middle East, populations are particularly dependent on these countries, since they are their main source of wheat supply.

Does this mean that we should fear a shortage of bread in the world? Not exactly, according to applied economics professor Marc F. Bellemare, who teaches at the University of Minnesota. It is more apprehension than a real lack that is currently panicking the markets – and pushing prices up.

“We’ve known that for a long time. It’s a distribution problem,” explains Mr. Bellemare, who is also director of the Center for International Food and Agricultural Policy.

The cereals blocked in Ukraine are a clear example of this. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been accused of using wheat as a psychological weapon to pressure the world. But he is not the only one who wins to see his price climb on the stock market, investors and large companies also finding their account.

In addition to food, another important product saw its value skyrocket after the start of the conflict: oil. The cost of gasoline contributes to increasing the prices of food, which is more expensive to transport. These expenses also add up for international organizations and agencies dedicated to international humanitarian aid.

Pandemic

The consequences of the war in Ukraine are added to the weaknesses already brought to light by two years of pandemic, particularly in the distribution chains.

The closure of a port or factory due to the absence of infected workers has caused bottlenecks. The system in place in stores, which consisted of having just enough goods in stock to meet anticipated demands, has collapsed, notes Mr. Bellemare. ” [Les marchands] realized that it takes more stock in inventory because if the supply system is not fluid, you have to produce here or have it in stock,” he explains.

In addition to supply-related issues, COVID-19 has caused significant slowdowns in economies around the world and added unforeseen expenses for governments.

“This means that the budget, which is already not huge for the state, goes largely to repaying the debt rather than investing in public services that would be essential to prevent a food crisis, such as investment in agriculture, in small-scale agricultural production and also invest in social protection”, illustrates Mr.^me Füri, giving the example of the national debts of Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia.

Possible solutions

To solve the problem of hunger in the world, there are immediate solutions, such as unblocking the cereals stuck in Ukraine and delivering food and money to the most affected populations.

But specialists fear a repetition of crises if the causes are not treated in parallel.

Independence and diversification

COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine have highlighted the dependence of some countries on imports of essential goods, making them particularly vulnerable.

“We need to start looking at different crops, looking at regenerative agriculture, and looking at other varieties of plants that can grow in countries that typically don’t get a lot of rain or have warmer climates,” Lisa says. Clark, research associate at the University of Saskatchewan. To build more sustainable and better-adapted infrastructure, however, countries need investment from major powers, she notes.

Genetic research

Researchers are looking at ways to make crops better suited to the extreme conditions that plague the world. “The solutions are multi-pronged,” explains Ms.^me Clark. Looking at the genetic profile of plants and animals that humans eat and trying to see how crops can be made a little more drought tolerant through gene editing and biotechnology is one option. No method is a panacea, she warns: the collective enthusiasm for a new product or an innovation often brings unexpected repercussions. Hence the importance of betting on several avenues.

Political efforts

“Climate change is unfairly affecting the places in the world and the populations that are least responsible for it,” emphasizes Céline Füri, humanitarian coordinator for Oxfam-Québec. One more reason for industrialized countries to keep their climate promises, she adds. “It is the responsibility of elected officials and governments to encourage the production of food in a more sustainable way, and to encourage farmers to go in this direction and to diversify their products,” said Ms.^me Clark. Oxfam-Québec and other organizations are advocating the cancellation of the debt of three East African countries, namely Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, to allow them to invest in solutions.

less meat

Farms, particularly cattle, contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. Cereals grown to feed livestock also occupy a large part of agricultural land. One of the solutions put forward to reduce climate change and contribute to food security is to reduce meat consumption. “I wouldn’t say the whole planet should switch to an all-plant-based diet, but I think it’s worth looking at other types of protein, like legumes and even sea plants,” Ms.^me Clark.

And biofuels?

The food crisis has raised questions about the use of grains processed into ethanol. Could quotas and targets for the use of biofuels to feed populations be reduced? “It would take a few years to redirect production from biofuels to crops that are edible,” notes Marc F. Bellemare, professor of applied economics at the University of Minnesota. Demand for grain to be turned into biofuel is likely contributing to higher prices for edible grain, he adds.

Prevention

“We have the technologies, the weather forecasting systems sufficiently developed — they have developed quite a bit in the last decade — to have the warning signs of a crisis, says Ms.^me Furi. The current crisis, we knew for two years that it was coming. Organizations such as Oxfam-Québec therefore advocate “anticipatory action”, establishing in advance the steps to follow at the first warning signs of a more widespread problem, for example, the repair of wells, the payment of money to communities for the purchase of fodder for livestock or pre-approvals of financing.