with Transnistria, is Russia trying to open a second front west of kyiv?

The authorities of this pro-Russian separatist region of Moldova asked Russia for “protective measures” on Wednesday. Events reminiscent of those of February 2022 in Donbass.

Like a sense of deja vu. The authorities of Transnistria, a pro-Russian separatist region of Moldova, asked Russia on Wednesday February 28 for “protective measures” in front of the “increased pressure” which, according to them, Moldova is exercising, against a backdrop of tensions exacerbated by the conflict in neighboring Ukraine.

The pro-Russian leaders of this self-proclaimed republic, recognized by no one, not even Russia, say “first ask for diplomatic support” in Moscow. In his speech, separatist president Vadim Krasnosselski, quoted by local media, assured that this territory was suffering “a policy of genocide”via economic pressures, “physical“, legal and linguistic. This is the first time that such a congress has taken place since 2006, when the separatist deputies decided to organize a referendum on the integration of Transnistria into Russia. A question then arises: the Is Russia trying to open a second front in western Ukraine?

The scenario closely resembles that of two years ago, when the separatist republics of Donbass, in a choreography orchestrated by the Kremlin, asked Russia to place them under its protection. A few days later, Moscow recognized the republics of Lugansk and Donetsk, before its troops entered Ukraine three days later. On Wednesday February 28, the Russian Foreign Ministry once again immediately acknowledged receipt of the request from the Transnistrian parliament, affirming that it would examine it carefully.

Maintain the pressure

However, the opening of a second front in Ukraine seems unlikely: the front line is more than 300km from this territory which officially has 465,000 mainly Russian-speaking inhabitants and the 1,500 Russian soldiers installed in the secessionist republic seem insufficiently equipped to launch a real offensive.

Transnistria nevertheless allows Moscow to create a new point of tension in Ukraine, but also to maintain pressure on Moldova, while this former Soviet bloc country is knocking on the door of the European Union. The kind of strategy that the Kremlin is particularly fond of. Chisinau and the European Union regularly criticize Russia for seeking to destabilize Moldova. In December 2023, the EU decided to open accession negotiations with both Moldova and Ukraine.

In Washington, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller reacted by saying that “The United States strongly supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Moldova within its internationally recognized borders“. The first European country to react officially, Poland, through its Prime Minister Donald Tusk, judged “dangerous” tensions in the region. Finally, in kyiv, Ukrainian diplomacy warned against any “destructive external interference” in Transnistria.