In an interview with the anchor of the bulletin Noovo Info 22, Michel Bherer, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reaffirmed last Thursday that there is no doubt about his political future. His reflection is made; he maintains that he will try to run for a fourth term at the head of the country.
This interview coincided with a first white carpet of snow, the sight of which offered a wink in the form of a historical reminder. His father, Pierre Elliott Trudeau, announced his departure from politics after a long walk in the snow in February 1984.
A question arises: we should know if this desire of Justin Trudeau to remain in office – and thus try to equal the record of four consecutive mandates held by Wilfrid Laurier – is also shared by his caucus and liberal activists.
Technically, liberal activists do not have a mechanism to eject their leader. As Justin Trudeau was returned to power in 2019 and 2021, he has not had to submit to a vote of confidence since his election as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada in April 2013.
Liberal MPs have not given themselves the power to do so either. They did not adopt the measures provided for in Conservative MP Michael Chong’s 2014 Reform Act aimed at strengthening Canada’s democratic institutions by restoring the role of MPs.
According to this law, after each election, during the first meeting of the caucus of deputies, each parliamentary group has the choice to grant itself (or not) the power to submit its leader to a vote of confidence. To do this, at least 20% of the group’s deputies must sign a written opinion. The objective is to balance the balance of power between the deputies and the leader, which includes the choice to expel a member from the caucus.
It is by virtue of these powers that Erin O’Toole was ejected from his position as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada on February 2, 2022, after losing a vote of confidence from MPs in his leadership. It was the first time that the powers of this law were used, and this, before the organization of a congress with the activists, a necessary step for a leader who had not been brought to power.
If we look at the latest polls and the predictions of analyst Philippe J. Fournier of 338Canada, the Liberals would retain on average 83 MPs, out of 158 MPs currently. This is therefore a potential loss of 75 deputies, or 47% of the Liberal caucus, which thus sees its electoral destiny put at risk. The best scenario foresees 114 Liberal MPs, which still represents a loss of 28% of the current caucus. In theory, we would therefore cross the threshold of 20% of the Liberal caucus likely to want to discuss the future of Justin Trudeau at the head of the country and their (bad) electoral fortune.
There is therefore no other way than to push for a possible palace revolution in order to push Justin Trudeau to bow out before the next election. Currently, there is only one missive written by Senator Percy Downe, Jean Chrétien’s former chief of staff, which openly calls for his departure. His call was not echoed by other influential members of the party. A potential successor, Mark Carney, has sent the signal of his availability.
Focus on time
” It really is toughbut inflation is falling, interest rates will start to fall again […], but it’s pocket in the present tense. » With these words, Justin Trudeau reveals part of his strategy: banking on time in the hope that the economic situation will improve before the electoral deadline of October 2025.
We therefore hope, in the liberal camp, that the dissatisfaction of Canadians, who are suffering from the rising cost of living, will fade with a hypothetical economic improvement before they return to express their preferences at the polls.
In his song, Léo Ferré says that “with time, everything goes away”. It is paradoxical to bet on time for the trend to reverse and the gap between the liberals and conservatives to narrow. Indeed, it is largely the wear and tear of power, and therefore the work of time, that hurts the Liberals the most after eight years in power. Will the desire for change be less great in a little less than two years, after ten years in power? In theory, no.
Certainly, a lot can happen between now and October 2025. The economic situation may improve, or not. Conservatives can stumble. The geopolitical context is uncertain given the various conflicts taking place on the planet. American politics, always full of surprises, also has its influence at home.
And if there is an economic improvement, it will not erase certain indicators and parts of the Liberals’ economic record, such as the doubling of the debt and ten years of deficits from coming to haunt them. In his economic update in Quebec, Minister Girard reduced his growth predictions. It will be the turn of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freeland, to enlighten us on November 21 on the state of the Canadian economy. Something to give liberal activists pause for thought.
Justin Trudeau also mentioned in this interview with Noovo that the next election heralds an existential choice. Voters will have to consider all the consequences if he is not returned to power. It is on this element that the Liberals’ strategy to stay in power lies.
Pierre Poilievre highlights the fact that everything is broken under Justin Trudeau. Justin Trudeau replies that everything will be destroyed if Pierre Poilievre replaces him. This rhetoric on the theme of collapse and preservation will be central to the political discourse and rhetoric. The Liberals have already launched an advertising campaign involving Donald Trump and Pierre Poilievre.
In the meantime, we will monitor the economic indicators carefully. Because as an advisor to Bill Clinton said: “ It’s the economy, stupid. »