Will Israel hear Joe Biden’s message against a ground invasion in Lebanon? Doubt is allowed as American diplomacy displays its inability to influence its ally since the start of the war in the Gaza Strip.
The US president suggested on Monday that he was opposed to Israeli ground operations in Lebanon, calling for a ceasefire at a time of extreme tensions following the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
“I know more than you think and I agree that they should stop. We have to have a ceasefire now,” Biden said when asked if he was aware of any information about Israeli plans for a ground incursion into Lebanon.
A few hours later, the State Department confirmed having had conversations with the Israelis who said they were “currently carrying out limited ground operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure near the border.”
The scenario seems familiar.
Every time the United States talks diplomacy or calls for a ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to respond by escalating the offensive.
Last Wednesday, the ink had barely dried on a joint statement between the United States and France calling for a 21-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, when Mr. Netanyahu announced the next day new strikes against Lebanese Islamist movement, supported by Iran.
In the middle of the UN General Assembly, the contrast was striking: while the Israeli Prime Minister authorized a devastating raid on Friday against the leader of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah, the American Secretary of State Antony Blinken renewed his call to follow the path of diplomacy.
“Israel has the right to defend itself but the way in which it does so matters,” he said during a press conference, echoing the American position expressed immediately after the bloody attack by Hamas against Israel on October 7.
Push your advantage
Certainly, Washington does not “mourn” the death of the Hezbollah leader, calling him a “brutal terrorist”, but the United States was quick to say that it was neither involved nor informed in advance of the attack . They did the same after the death of Hamas political leader Ismaïl Haniyeh, killed in Iran on July 31 in an attack blamed on Israel.
Israel clearly intends to push its advantage to the maximum, having considerably weakened the Lebanese Islamist movement, and facing Hamas largely defeated in Gaza, according to a diplomatic source.
And, despite the headwinds, in Washington, we still want to believe in diplomacy.
“Diplomacy remains the best and only path to achieving greater stability in the Middle East, and the United States remains committed to advancing these efforts with urgency” toward a diplomatic resolution in Lebanon and a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, said Antony Blinken.
The latter spoke on Sunday with his French counterpart Jean-Noël Barrot, who on Monday urged Israel from Beirut to “refrain from any land incursion into Lebanon”, visibly without response.
Mr. Blinken also joined Britain’s David Lammy on Monday morning, and spoke with Arab ministers, on the sidelines of a ministerial meeting in Washington of the coalition against the Islamic State group.
Those around him assure that they are not dictating to Israel, a sovereign state, its conduct of the war, while half-heartedly recognizing a limited room for maneuver over Mr. Netanyahu.
But events seem to be accelerating without the United States being able to do much, relegating Israel’s primary political and military support to being in reaction, in crisis management.
And Joe Biden has so far refused to use the leverage of arms against Israel, apart from suspending a delivery of bombs in May.
Complicating matters is the U.S. political calendar, with Vice President Kamala Harris locked in a tough race against former President Donald Trump.
The Biden government is desperate to reach an agreement in the Middle East before the presidential election in order to avoid the impression of chaos, but few observers believe it is ready for a change of strategy, so close to the vote on the 5 november.