The target of 100 million people in the country by 2100 has recently made headlines in several newspapers, and reactions have flared up in several social and political arenas. Whether this number is an intentional objective or not, it remains a scenario that is not implausible according to several demographers consulted by The duty.
The country’s population was indeed already on a trajectory that could lead to 100 million even before the “record targets” for immigration announced by the federal government since 2022 and before the emergence of the pressure group called the “Initiative of the Century”, show these experts. The decline in the demographic weight of Quebec is not a new element either, since it began several decades ago.
It was first the lobby group that recommended this goal as far back as 2016. It was brought back to the fore after the Montreal Journal recently made a record of it. Federal Immigration Minister Sean Fraser distanced himself from this pressure group last week, while refusing to revise immigration levels downwards. In the National Assembly, a motion was adopted to declare the reception of 500,000 immigrants per year by 2025 as “incompatible with the protection of the French language in Quebec”.
However, there is no need for a “radical increase” in immigration thresholds, as several media wrote, for Canada’s population to reach 100 million by this time. In the pre-pandemic years (2018 and 2019), there were 320,000 to 340,000 permanent immigrants in the country. “We are talking about a population growth rate of around 1.6%,” calculated demographer Alain Bélanger, professor at the National Institute for Scientific Research. If we project this same rate until 2100, we reach 130 million people in 2100.
“We can believe or not, wish or not this demographic, but it is clear, we are in rates which lead us to 100 million or more inhabitants in Canada, even before the pandemic and the record federal targets”, notes Mr. Bélanger.
At Statistics Canada, the director of the Demography Center, Laurent Martel, agrees that this number is likely according to certain future scenarios. The government agency does not make projections beyond 50 years, but it has recently published several assumptions.
“In a scenario of strong growth, in 2071 we are approaching 80 million. If we had projected a little further, we would be on a trajectory that would bring us closer to 100 million in 2100,” confirms Mr. Martel. This trajectory also assumes higher fertility than at present, whereas the trend is rather downward.
“No one has a crystal ball, it’s more of a bundle of possibilities for the future,” he explains.
Another scenario examined by Statistics Canada, an average growth of an immigration rate of 0.8%, instead brings the population to about 56 million in 2071. It would therefore be less than 100 million in 2100, but without a huge gap. , explains Mr. Martel, who avoids advancing a more precise figure.
“An average immigration rate of 0.8% [celui utilisé dans le scénario moyen] more reflective of the past 30 years,” he continues. These examples give an idea of the “order of magnitude” and “significant efforts” to reach a population of 100 million.
What is not new
Several commentators were indignant that Canada wanted to “drown” Quebec. The idea that our demographic weight is declining compared to the rest of the country is far from new, however. The trend has been around since the 1980s, depending on what The duty has calculated: the province has received each year, for 40 years, less than its weight within Canada in terms of newcomers, that is between 15 to 20%.
It also has another corollary. The proportion of people born abroad is also several percentage points lower than the rest of the country: 15% of Quebecers compared to 22% of Canadians were born abroad, according to Statistics Canada.
Why, then, does this debate resurface as if it were a new situation? For demographer Victor Piché, “this kind of simulation serves to scare people” and even to “accuse the government of conspiring to drown Quebec”. It would therefore be a question of political instrumentalization, according to him: “It is completely far-fetched to make such projections. Over 77 years, the uncertainty is total. »
Are we receiving more immigrants than ever? The answer depends on whether we take an absolute number (the threshold) or a proportion (which also refers to the capacity for integration). Quebec has been receiving 50,000 immigrants a year since 2009. Its total population has increased, however, from 7.8 million to 8.8 million today. Each year, therefore, the number of 50,000 represented a smaller share of the total.
Between the 1950s and 1980s, Quebec received between 15,000 and 55,000 immigrants per year, for an average of around 30,000 people annually. The population of the 1950s was almost half of today.
In other eras too, Canadian growth has also been driven by immigration, in addition to births. The country has in fact just returned to the same proportion of foreign-born people as between 1911 and 1931, or 22%.
On the current trajectory, the province would somewhat catch up with the rest of Canada by 2041 in terms of the percentage of foreign-born people in its population, according to Mr. Martel’s scenarios; but Canada would already be at nearly 30%.
Which is new
Laurent Martel, demographer at Statistics Canada, nevertheless insists on the “uniqueness” of our demographic situation. The current growth is among the highest of the G7 countries and even among the industrialized countries. The world’s population could also stabilize or start decreasing in the long term, he notes.
If we use the 2022 growth rate of 2.7%, a record since the peak of the baby boom in 1957, we obtain moreover 300 million inhabitants in 2100, according to calculations by Alain Bélanger . This scenario is “not sustainable”, he believes.
Canada’s population has more than tripled in the past 77 years; why wouldn’t it in the next 77 years?
This is where the demographic field becomes truly undermined. All the experts talk about it with great caution.
“It’s not exactly the same thing to compare an immigrant with an unborn baby. Extrapolating the past to the future is debatable,” adds Marc Termote, associate professor of demography at the University of Montreal. There are questions of “managing” this growth, even if it has existed since the beginning of colonization.
“Theoretically, we could very likely arrive at 100 million, but the implications from the economic and demographic point of view are enormous,” he explains. He cites in particular the problems of housing, access to health care and education. These show up eventually for babies born today, but more quickly for immigrants who land at a median age of around 32.
“I see above all the cultural and humanitarian benefits of immigration which are not negligible. Why do we always forget them? asks Mr. Termote.
As for the French language, it depends above all on the policies put in place. Plurilingualism will increase. We must therefore “rethink” certain demolinguistic indicators, suggests Mr. Martel.
None of the demographers consulted is able to arrive at an “ideal” figure for 2100. “What kind of growth is desirable? It is this debate that has not been done, to my knowledge”, at least not with all the pieces of the puzzle, he concludes.