Papers in hand and a big watch on his wrist, Vladimir Putin announced on Russian television that gas buyers will have to pay for their imports in rubles from Friday, April 1. Otherwise the buyers will be considered in default of payment and the contracts canceled, warns the Russian president.
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Does this mean that Russia is ready to turn off the gas tap? Vladimir Putin was careful not to say this. And opposite, the European leaders affirm it: no question for them of bowing to blackmail, nor of bailing out Putin’s war chest, swears the German Minister of Finance. A war chest, by the way, that Europe in fact already maintains since it buys 600 million to one billion euros of gas per day from Russia.
Bruno Le Maire for his part, assures that France and Germany are preparing for a stoppage of imports. But as with Vladimir Putin, the words are precise: there may be “a situation” in which tomorrow, “in very specific circumstances”, there will be no more Russian gas. Also, no question of provoking the Russian president by proclaiming that he is bluffing. But stopping imports is only one scenario among others: European leaders seem to have difficulty placing it at the top of the probabilities.
It is indeed permissible to doubt the reality of the threat: the new organization imposed by Vladimir Putin, in reality, does not change much. The French Minister for Ecological Transition, Barbara Pompili, also explained this Friday morning before the National Assembly. European gas buyers will be able to continue to pay in euros. Simply, they will be forced to do this to open accounts in Russian banks, and especially in Gazprombank, a bank entirely managed by the Russian gas giant Gazprom, and therefore very close to the Kremlin. Yet, paradoxically, it is not affected by Western sanctions because it operates in the energy sector, itself excluded from sanctions so that Europeans can continue to import.
Western companies will therefore be able to continue to pay in euros or dollars, as stipulated in the contracts. And it is the Russian banks that receive these payments that will do the conversion into rubles. At this stage, there is no risk of breach of contract, so a priori no disruption of Russian gas imports, concludes Barbara Pompili. The markets seem to be making the same analysis since yesterday, unlike last week, they barely reacted, gas prices only increasing by 1%.
Incidentally, Vladimir Putin will have succeeded, vis-à-vis his public opinion, in posing as a champion of Russian firmness, while protecting Gazprombank from Western sanctions, without killing one of its sources of foreign currency. “Vladimir Putin is trying at all costs to protect the value of the ruble, analysis Sylvie Matelly, economist and deputy director of the Institute of International and Strategic Relations. Because the Russian consumer is very dependent on his final consumption imports and the value of the ruble also determines the price at which he will pay for his consumption”.
With his ultimatum, Vladimir Putin “takes a risk in the long term, it is that the Europeans gradually reduce their dependence on gas”says the economist. Fossil fuel export earnings are “very important” for Russia, recalls Sylvie Matelly. They represent “36 to 37% of the Russian state budget”according to the deputy director of Iris. “Beyond the economic or financial consequences, the approach is symbolic. We are in a logic for Putin to push the Europeans to circumvent their own sanctions”believes the economist.
Also, as long as the boss of the Kremlin has not carried out his threat, it is sleight of hand or Shakespearean comedy: much ado about nothing.