will the Ukrainians of Kalush Orchestra win?

His sympathy capital is 200%. Kalush Orchestra is popular with bookmakers. According to Eurovisionworld, which aggregates the main online betting sites, they even have up to a 49% chance of winning their ticket to the Eurovision 2022 final. Far ahead of Italy, Great Britain and Sweden.

Faced with the Russians, the Ukrainians are fighting on all terrains: “En this moment, there is no small victory for us” says the leader of the group, Oleg Psiuk, who comes from Kalush, a small industrial town in the west of the country. “We are here to show that Ukrainian music and culture exist“he said at the opening of the event. Russia was excluded from the competition on February 25, the day after the outbreak of war.

The song that represents Ukraine, Stefania (named after Oleg’s mother), is a tribute to all Ukrainian mothers and the motherland. It’s quite creative: a mix of rap, pop and traditional folk music. The singer is recognizable by the flashy pink bucket hat he always wears on his head.

I will always find my way home, even if the roads are destroyed.” says this text which was written before the war. At the end of his performance last night, Oleg launched a very sober “Mthank you for your support to Ukraine“. All profits from the song will go to charities.

For the record, Kalush Orchestra was not initially selected. The initial candidate had to withdraw after a controversy because she had traveled to Crimea via Russia, which is prohibited in Ukraine.

The group, which was born in 2019, therefore learned a few days before the outbreak of the war that it was going to participate. Repeating was not easy. The leader of the group has created an organization of volunteers to help relocate people and transport medicines, the dancer, “MCCarpetman”enlisted in the territorial defense forces.

And since all men of fighting age are no longer allowed to leave the country, Kalush Orchestra had to obtain special authorization from the government to travel to Italy, to Turin, for the competition. With an obligation to return to Ukraine the day after the final.

The European Broadcasting Union (EBU), organizer of this extraordinary event, must re-specify every year that it is “an apolitical organization“. But Eurovision rarely remains on the sidelines of the great upheavals of the world. In 1975, for example, Greece refused to participate in protest against the invasion of Cyprus by Turkey. In 1992, Totto Cutugno sang the title Whole (Insieme), call for a united Europe in the face of the war in Yugoslavia. And in 2014, there were public whistles against Russia, which had just annexed the Crimean peninsula.

This year, the emotional dimension will obviously weigh heavily in the final against the 24 other candidates (the countries that contribute the most financially to the organization of Eurovision, France, Germany, Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom, are automatically qualified). The support of the public, who split a standing ovation during the semi-final, does not mean that the Ukrainian group will win. We must also see what the professional jury says about the intrinsic qualities of the song. The Ukrainian contribution is solid but there are others. The first comments on Tuesday evening May 10 were rather positive – without being deliriously enthusiastic.

For some Internet users in any case, “the Top 5 in the final” seems almost assured. Ukraine has already won the Eurovision twice, in 2004 and in 2016 (two years after the annexation of the Crimean peninsula by Russia). This year, it does not really matter that it ends in first place… Because Eurovision remains a formidable communication weapon.

Since its inception in 1956, it has gone from being considered a corny concept to becoming the most viewed show in the world after the FIFA World Cup final. 183 million viewers for the 2021 edition. The simple fact of taking part and benefiting from this formidable sounding board is already a victory. And if Ukraine ever wins, it will be up to them to host the competition in 2023. In a country at peace?


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