Will the arrival of F16 planes in Ukraine help reverse the course of the war?

Requested almost since the beginning of the war, the delivery of combat aircraft to help the Ukrainian army is about to become a reality.

The first F16 fighter jets are about to arrive in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday, July 1. Ukraine plans, he said, to “strengthen its air defense capabilities”, in the coming month. And the question is: how can these planes influence the course of the war?

Before the war began in February 2022, Ukraine had about 120 combat-ready aircraft: fighters, bombers, attack aircraft. Since the beginning of the conflict, the country’s armed forces have lost about a hundred of them. At the insistence of Volodymyr Zelensky, a year ago, in July 2023, at the NATO summit in Vilnius, a coalition was created around Denmark, the Netherlands, with nine other countries, to deliver combat aircraft to kyiv. If they have still not arrived, it is mainly because the countries that supply are waiting for the delivery of F35s to replace the F16s that they are giving to Ukraine. On paper, the promise is there: the Netherlands must deliver 24, Norway 22, Denmark 19, and Belgium about thirty, but by 2028. In total, about a hundred planes, which, according to the Ukrainians, can change the course of the war. The aim for the country is to regain its air supremacy over Russia. If used correctly, these F16s can inflict heavy damage on Russian aviation, and effectively strike ground targets.

For this aid to be effective, everything must be coordinated. For months, the Ukrainian armed forces have been targeting Russian air defense systems in Crimea, in other occupied territories and in the border regions of Russia. About ten strikes have been successful. The Ukrainians are constantly demanding it, they are asking for authorization from Western countries, mainly the United States, to use long-range weapons against Russian air bases. Finally, there is the issue of the shortage of pilots, most of whom have been killed or injured. While it is very difficult to get figures, about forty men aged 20 to 22 are currently being trained in the United States and in Europe, including France.

Monday in Washington, according to the newspaper Politico15 House Democrats have called on the U.S. Defense Department to train at least 10 more pilots this year. The fear is that if the F-16s are delivered as promised, there will soon be more fighter jets in Ukraine than people trained to fly them.