Thirty-eight million: this is the total number of French people eligible for the third dose against Covid-19 by January 15. Among them, at least 9 million people aged 18 to 64 (whose vaccination schedule was completed more than seven months ago) must have received their booster dose, otherwise lose their health pass.
For those over 65, these new provisions came into force on December 15. According to the latest data from health authorities, more than 8 million of them had received their booster dose on December 14. But more than 2.7 million eligible people were still missing. How many of these risk losing their health pass? On Tuesday, RMC radio advanced the figure of 400,000 people at risk. A figure very broadly qualified by the Minister of Health, Olivier Véran, Wednesday. “We consider that the number of French people who would not be vaccinated to date aged over 65, not up to date of their recall and who would have a suspension of the pass, is a much lower number than that which could be put forward” , asserted Olivier Véran during a hearing at the National Assembly.
By January 15, how many French people risk losing their health pass while waiting for their third dose? Are the stocks of vaccines sufficient? Will the current pace make it possible to achieve the objectives set by the government? While the queues are always full in the vaccination centers, the editorial staff of franceinfo took out their calculator to answer all these questions.
Are the stocks of vaccines sufficient?
Yes… The recall campaign was opened on September 1 for French people over 65, whose vaccination schedule is complete and who received their last dose at least six months earlier. Since November 27, it is now open to all French people aged 18 and over and the minimum time after the last dose has been lowered to five months. To date, nearly 16 million adults have received their booster dose. That is more than half of the nearly 30 million who are entitled to it. But that eligible population grows as the days go by. On January 1, they will be over 35 million, and on January 15, that number will reach almost 38.7 million.
After subtracting the people who have already received their booster, in theory there is still a need for nearly 24 million injections. To achieve this goal, vaccine stocks seem largely sufficient. According to the records kept by the Directorate General of Health, France had on December 3 more than 10 million Moderna doses and more than 14 million Pfizer-BioNTech, the two RNA vaccines used for the recall campaign .
This inventory statement has not been updated since the beginning of December. But, according to records from Public Health France, nearly 5.5 million doses of Pfizer-BioNTech were injected and just over 900,000 for Moderna, between December 3 and 14. In addition, more than 7 million additional new doses of Pfizer-BioNTech must be delivered by January 16. Thus, by mid-January, France would have nearly 16 million doses of Pfizer and nearly 9.5 million Moderna.
Corn… The state of stocks implies that the French agree to be vaccinated with the product of the American laboratory Moderna, which also has the advantage, for the moment, of being injected by half-dose for the booster. Except for people under the age of 30, the third doses can be given without distinction with the Moderna vaccine or that of Pfizer-BioNTech, regardless of the vaccine initially received.
Since November 27, nearly 80% of recalls have been made with Pfizer-BioNTech. Moderna’s vaccine, contraindicated for those under 30 by the High Authority for Health because of an infrequent risk of heart inflammation, seems to arouse mistrust. As a result, Pfizer’s reserves are melting, while Moderna’s stocks are not declining. Faced with this phenomenon, the government invited French people over 30 not to shy away from Moderna’s vaccine, which has also been substituted for orders from Pfizer-BioNTech in many vaccination centers in recent days.
Is the current pace fast enough?
Yes… After reaching the threshold of 10 million booster doses injected on December 4, the government has set itself a target of reaching 20 million by Christmas. Given the pace of the current campaign, the challenge looks set to be met. According to the latest reports, dated December 14, the average rate of booster dose injections in France is currently nearly 610,000 per day. A rate a little higher than that observed at the end of last spring (590,000 per day), when the French received their first and second doses. If this dynamic does not weaken in the coming days, then the 20 million booster shots could be crossed as early as Tuesday, December 21.
Corn… The current rate will not make it possible to achieve a vaccination of 100% of those eligible by January 15, 2022. At that date, if the campaign maintains the same daily rate, we could in theory reach 35.4 million French people having received their dose. recall of nearly 38.7 million eligible people, a rate of nearly 91%.
These projections do not take into account a possible drop in the pace of the campaign during the Christmas holidays. However, the table of appointments published by the Directorate General of Health, based on reservations made via the online platforms Doctolib, Keldoc and Maiia, shows a sharp drop over the next two weeks. While more than 1.3 million slots were booked the week of December 13, this figure is almost halved for the week of December 20, with just over 760,000 reservations. And only a little more than 525,000 appointments were recorded for the week of December 27.
Under these conditions, and unless there is a catch-up in the first days of the year 2022, the number of French eligible on January 15 who will not have received their recall could be much higher. It remains to be seen how many people would be likely to lose the benefit of their health pass. The threat only weighs on the 9 million French people aged 18 to 64 whose vaccination schedule was completed before mid-June 2021. The available data do not allow us to know the number of people within this population. who have not yet received their booster dose.